Red Green Breakout Probability
This indicator sets levels above and below the last closed candle and then calculates how many candles in the history managed to reach those levels. This is then displayed on the latest still forming candle as five lines below the previous low and five lines above the previous high with the percentage of candles that have reached this level in the past.
The results are calculated separately depending upon whether the previous candle was a red candle or a green candle.
The spacing of the lines can be altered using the step variable. So you might want to see how many red candles reached 5 pips, 10 pips etc above and below the previous high and low. Alternatively the spacing (and historical calculations) can be based on a percentage of the closing price. If ‘Percentage’ is set to anything other than zero then percentage spaced lines are used otherwise if it is set to zero the spacing is based on the ‘Step’ value.
It is also possible to set the start date for calculating the history. If the date is set to zero then it analyses all of the candles on the chart.
So for example if yesterday was a green candle we might see that history tells us that the high has been hit or passed 75% of the time after a green candle but the low only 33% of the time. We can then also see that the high plus 0.5% has been hit 50% of the time and the low minus 0.5% only 21% of the time and so on.
Hopefully this indicator can help with understanding the probability of a breakout or assist in setting stop loss levels based on where a price is most likely or least likely to go.
I advise downloading the ITF file and importing it to get full functionality.
//Red Green Breakout Probability
//By Vonasi
//20190802
defparam drawonlastbaronly = true
//step = 3
//percentage = 0
if opendate > startdate or startdate = 0 then
if percentage > 0 then
step = close * (percentage/100)
endif
green = close[1] > open[1]
red = close[1] < open[1]
x = 0
hh = high > high[1] + x
ll = low < low[1] - x
if green then
gtotal = gtotal + 1
endif
if red then
rtotal = rtotal + 1
endif
if green and hh then
g0hh = g0hh + 1
endif
if red and hh then
r0hh = r0hh + 1
endif
if green and ll then
g0ll = g0ll + 1
endif
if red and ll then
r0ll = r0ll + 1
endif
g0hhperc = (g0hh/gtotal)*100
r0hhperc = (r0hh/rtotal)*100
g0llperc = (g0ll/gtotal)*100
r0llperc = (r0ll/rtotal)*100
x = x + step
hh = high > high[1] + x
ll = low < low[1] - x
if green and hh then
g1hh = g1hh + 1
endif
if red and hh then
r1hh = r1hh + 1
endif
if green and ll then
g1ll = g1ll + 1
endif
if red and ll then
r1ll = r1ll + 1
endif
g1hhperc = (g1hh/gtotal)*100
r1hhperc = (r1hh/rtotal)*100
g1llperc = (g1ll/gtotal)*100
r1llperc = (r1ll/rtotal)*100
x = x + step
hh = high > high[1] + x
ll = low < low[1] - x
if green and hh then
g2hh = g2hh + 1
endif
if red and hh then
r2hh = r2hh + 1
endif
if green and ll then
g2ll = g2ll + 1
endif
if red and ll then
r2ll = r2ll + 1
endif
g2hhperc = (g2hh/gtotal)*100
r2hhperc = (r2hh/rtotal)*100
g2llperc = (g2ll/gtotal)*100
r2llperc = (r2ll/rtotal)*100
x = x + step
hh = high > high[1] + x
ll = low < low[1] - x
if green and hh then
g3hh = g3hh + 1
endif
if red and hh then
r3hh = r3hh + 1
endif
if green and ll then
g3ll = g3ll + 1
endif
if red and ll then
r3ll = r3ll + 1
endif
g3hhperc = (g3hh/gtotal)*100
r3hhperc = (r3hh/rtotal)*100
g3llperc = (g3ll/gtotal)*100
r3llperc = (r3ll/rtotal)*100
x = x + step
hh = high > high[1] + x
ll = low < low[1] - x
if green and hh then
g4hh = g4hh + 1
endif
if red and hh then
r4hh = r4hh + 1
endif
if green and ll then
g4ll = g4ll + 1
endif
if red and ll then
r4ll = r4ll + 1
endif
g4hhperc = (g4hh/gtotal)*100
r4hhperc = (r4hh/rtotal)*100
g4llperc = (g4ll/gtotal)*100
r4llperc = (r4ll/rtotal)*100
g0hhperc = round(g0hhperc)
r0hhperc = round(r0hhperc)
g0llperc = round(g0llperc)
r0llperc = round(r0llperc)
g1hhperc = round(g1hhperc)
r1hhperc = round(r1hhperc)
g1llperc = round(g1llperc)
r1llperc = round(r1llperc)
g2hhperc = round(g2hhperc)
r2hhperc = round(r2hhperc)
g2llperc = round(g2llperc)
r2llperc = round(r2llperc)
g3hhperc = round(g3hhperc)
r3hhperc = round(r3hhperc)
g3llperc = round(g3llperc)
r3llperc = round(r3llperc)
g4hhperc = round(g4hhperc)
r4hhperc = round(r4hhperc)
g4llperc = round(g4llperc)
r4llperc = round(r4llperc)
drawsegment(barindex[1],high[1],barindex,high[1]) coloured(0,128,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],high[1]+step,barindex,high[1]+step) coloured(0,128,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],high[1]+(step*2),barindex,high[1]+(step*2)) coloured(0,128,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],high[1]+(step*3),barindex,high[1]+(step*3)) coloured(0,128,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],high[1]+(step*4),barindex,high[1]+(step*4)) coloured(0,128,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],low[1],barindex,low[1]) coloured(128,0,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],low[1]-step,barindex,low[1]-step) coloured(128,0,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],low[1]-(step*2),barindex,low[1]-(step*2)) coloured(128,0,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],low[1]-(step*3),barindex,low[1]-(step*3)) coloured(128,0,0)
drawsegment(barindex[1],low[1]-(step*4),barindex,low[1]-(step*4)) coloured(128,0,0)
if green then
drawtext(" #g0hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1],SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #g1hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1]+step,SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #g2hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1]+(step*2),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #g3hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1]+(step*3),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #g4hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1]+(step*4),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #g0llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1],SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
drawtext(" #g1llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1]-step,SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
drawtext(" #g2llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1]-(step*2),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
drawtext(" #g3llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1]-(step*3),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
drawtext(" #g4llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1]-(step*4),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
endif
if red then
drawtext(" #r0hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1],SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #r1hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1]+step,SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #r2hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1]+(step*2),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #r3hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1]+(step*3),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #r4hhperc#% ",barindex-1,high[1]+(step*4),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(0,128,0)
drawtext(" #r0llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1],SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
drawtext(" #r1llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1]-step,SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
drawtext(" #r2llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1]-(step*2),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
drawtext(" #r3llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1]-(step*3),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
drawtext(" #r4llperc#% ",barindex-1,low[1]-(step*4),SansSerif,standard,10)coloured(128,0,0)
endif
endif
return
Comments
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Je crains de ne pas comprendre... Cela indique la probabilité de la prochaine bougie ou donne la probabilité de la bougie actuelle ? (je n'ai pas les cours en direct sur prorealtime est ce que cela marche différemment ?) Did it show the probability of the next candle or the probability of the current (last fully formed)candle ?
Hello Vonasi, thank you for your work. Is it possible to draw this lines on past candles other than the [1] ? I would like to analyse each time this appears : c1 = open > high[1] and close[1] > open [1] Thank you for your help Cheers
Following on from your earlier advice, I changed the ‘drawtext’ command to various sizes before settling with 20, instead of 10 (default) and it it now easily read. I am running the utility on 3 FTSE charts: Volume (1000), 2H and Daily, so next week should be very interesting after the turmoil of the coronavirus panic.
This is really a fascinating indicator Vonasi! Particularly when it gives probabilities that are sometimes contrary to how the previous history of candles appears. I was wondering is there an easy way of adding a formula to the code that would show standard deviations as well as steps (ticks, pips) and percentages? Great work. How would you automate it with the simplified creation tool if you wanted to go long only if the Red/Green Prob is over 80% and ditto for shorts?
Hi Vonasi, thanks for this great idea. Obviously the indicator works for everyone commenting here but when I added it to my library and added it to a €/$ chart it just leaves a blank space? Have PRT changed the import? Normally it searches my Downloads folder but this time I had to drag and drop the itf file? Tried different perameters and left the start date as 0. Also tried 20200101 as well. I have 1000 units on the chart. Any ideas? Cheers!
Good job! :)
A nice enhancement for this would be if you could calculate the probability of the monthly close graphed on a weekly TF (or Weekly close graphed on a Daily TF) but update the probability after each bar close based on the level of the close respective to the previous Months close (Weekly TF) or Weeks Close (Daily TF). This means that statistically speaking the accuracy of the probability should increase as the Week (Daily TF) or Month (Weekly TF) progresses.
Esta impresionante solo que muy pequeños los numeros voy a intentar agrandarlos