Candlestick Probability

Candlestick Probability

This indicator analyses candles in the past and then displays in a text format what has historically happened based on how the current candle is drawn.

It analyses every candle back to whatever start date you set and the win rate is calculated based on buying or selling at the open of the next candle and then selling at the close.

It analyses colour, highs and lows and every combination of them.

It returns short and long win rate results for:

  • Candle colour – a green or red body.
  • A higher high (HH) or lower high (LH) or higher low (HL) or lower low (LL) compared to the previous candle.
  • Candles with a HH, LH, HL or LL with either green or red body.
  • Candles with HH+HL, LH+LL, HH+LL or LH+HL.
  • Candles with HH+HL, LH+LL, HH+LL or LH+HL with either a green or red body.

It checks the current candle and then displays below it the following data based on which of the above candle conditions are met:

  • Market – the all time win rate if you bought at the open of every candle and sold at the close. It is shown as green if longs have been more successful and red if shorts have been more successful. This is our baseline probability to try to beat.
  • The long win rate and short win rate for each of the possible combinations that fit the candle drawn above.
  • The average long win rate and the average short win rate for all the results for the candle drawn above.
  • The difference between the average win rates. The higher number is the highest probable direction of the next candle based on what has happened historically.
  • The difference between the all time market win rate and the highest of the two long/short average win rates. A minus/red number indicates that the probability is not greater than the market norm and a higher/green number indicates that probability is greater than the market norm.

Obviously zoom in to see the indicator more clearly.

This indicator could be useful for checking on weekly and daily charts to get a feel for what might happen next but remember that what happened in the past may not necessarily repeat itself in the future! Also on indices where the trend is normally up the probability for short trades will always be low compared to long trades.

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Risk disclosure:

No information on this site is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading may expose you to risk of loss greater than your deposits and is only suitable for experienced investors who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk.

ProRealTime ITF files and other attachments : How to import ITF files into ProRealTime platform?

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  1. pableitor • 12/11/2018 #

    Very interesting indicator, it could be the basis of an AI system…no kidding.

  2. Juanjo • 12/11/2018 #

    Eres Grande¡¡¡…muchas Gracias.

  3. Juanjo • 12/11/2018 #

    Me parece muy interesante lo que has hecho, yo estoy queria hacer una estadistica similar, pero tengo problemas con el código. ¿podrias ayudarme?

  4. Vonasi • 12/11/2018 #

    I can’t help in Spanish! Maybe it is better to start a topic in the forums with your questions.

  5. RGKP • 12/11/2018 #

    Hi Vonasi, great work! But what I do not understand is that the statistics change according to the number of bars you load. Would you have any explanation ? Thank you

  6. mr_delta • 12/11/2018 #

    Hi I am interested in in scanning for a similar setup where I want to find the HH & HL being formed for swing trading (not for individual candles). Similar for LH & LL for a down trend. Is there a readymade example I can have a look at? Thanks in advance – I am just learning so not sure if I am asking the right question 🙂

  7. Vonasi • 12/11/2018 #

    Minor Bug Fix Please download an updated version with a minor bug fix from here:

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