This indicator analyses candles in the past and then displays in a text format what has historically happened based on how the current candle is drawn.
It analyses every candle back to whatever start date you set and the win rate is calculated based on buying or selling at the open of the next candle and then selling at the close.
It analyses colour, highs and lows and every combination of them.
It returns short and long win rate results for:
- Candle colour – a green or red body.
- A higher high (HH) or lower high (LH) or higher low (HL) or lower low (LL) compared to the previous candle.
- Candles with a HH, LH, HL or LL with either green or red body.
- Candles with HH+HL, LH+LL, HH+LL or LH+HL.
- Candles with HH+HL, LH+LL, HH+LL or LH+HL with either a green or red body.
It checks the current candle and then displays below it the following data based on which of the above candle conditions are met:
- Market – the all time win rate if you bought at the open of every candle and sold at the close. It is shown as green if longs have been more successful and red if shorts have been more successful. This is our baseline probability to try to beat.
- The long win rate and short win rate for each of the possible combinations that fit the candle drawn above.
- The average long win rate and the average short win rate for all the results for the candle drawn above.
- The difference between the average win rates. The higher number is the highest probable direction of the next candle based on what has happened historically.
- The difference between the all time market win rate and the highest of the two long/short average win rates. A minus/red number indicates that the probability is not greater than the market norm and a higher/green number indicates that probability is greater than the market norm.
Obviously zoom in to see the indicator more clearly.
This indicator could be useful for checking on weekly and daily charts to get a feel for what might happen next but remember that what happened in the past may not necessarily repeat itself in the future! Also on indices where the trend is normally up the probability for short trades will always be low compared to long trades.
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//Candlestick Probability // //By Vonasi //Created 20181211 // //StartDate = 19950101 hh = high[1] > high[2] ll = low[1] < low[2] hl = low[1] >= low[2] lh = high[1] <= high[2] g = close[1] > open[1] r = close [1] <= open[1] if date >= startdate then //HH if hh then hhcount = hhcount + 1 if close > open then hhlong = hhlong + 1 endif endif //LL if ll then llcount = llcount + 1 if close > open then lllong = lllong + 1 endif endif //LH if lh then lhcount = lhcount + 1 if close > open then lhlong = lhlong + 1 endif endif //HL if hl then hlcount = hlcount + 1 if close > open then hllong = hllong + 1 endif endif //HHHL if hh and hl then hhhlcount = hhhlcount + 1 if close > open then hhhllong = hhhllong + 1 endif endif //LHLL if lh and ll then lhllcount = lhllcount + 1 if close > open then lhlllong = lhlllong + 1 endif endif //HHLL if hh and ll then hhllcount = hhllcount + 1 if close > open then hhlllong = hhlllong + 1 endif endif //LHHL if lh and hl then lhhlcount = lhhlcount + 1 if close > open then lhhllong = lhhllong + 1 endif endif //HHG if hh and g then hhgcount = hhgcount + 1 if close > open then hhglong = hhglong + 1 endif endif //LLG if ll and g then llgcount = llgcount + 1 if close > open then llglong = llglong + 1 endif endif //LHG if lh and g then lhgcount = lhgcount + 1 if close > open then lhglong = lhglong + 1 endif endif //HLG if hl and g then hlgcount = hlgcount + 1 if close > open then hlglong = hlglong + 1 endif endif //HHR if hh and r then hhrcount = hhrcount + 1 if close > open then hhrlong = hhrlong + 1 endif endif //LLR if ll and r then llrcount = llrcount + 1 if close > open then llrlong = llrlong + 1 endif endif //LHR if lh and r then lhrcount = lhrcount + 1 if close > open then lhrlong = lhrlong + 1 endif endif //HLR if hl and r then hlrcount = hlrcount + 1 if close > open then hlrlong = hlrlong + 1 endif endif //HHHLG if hh and hl and g then hhhlgcount = hhhlgcount + 1 if close > open then hhhlglong = hhhlglong + 1 endif endif //LHLLG if lh and ll and g then lhllgcount = lhllgcount + 1 if close > open then lhllglong = lhllglong + 1 endif endif //HHLLG if hh and ll and g then hhllgcount = hhllgcount + 1 if close > open then hhllglong = hhllglong + 1 endif endif //LHHLG if lh and hl and g then lhhlgcount = lhhlgcount + 1 if close > open then lhhlglong = lhhlglong + 1 endif endif //HHHLR if hh and hl and r then hhhlrcount = hhhlrcount + 1 if close > open then hhhlrlong = hhhlrlong + 1 endif endif //LHLLR if lh and ll and r then lhllrcount = lhllrcount + 1 if close > open then lhllrlong = lhllrlong + 1 endif endif //HHLLR if hh and ll and r then hhllrcount = hhllrcount + 1 if close > open then hhllrlong = hhllrlong + 1 endif endif //LHHLR if lh and hl and r then lhhlrcount = lhhlrcount + 1 if close > open then lhhlrlong = lhhlrlong + 1 endif endif //G if g then gcount = gcount + 1 if close > open then glong = glong + 1 endif endif //R if r then rcount = rcount + 1 if close > open then rlong = rlong + 1 endif endif hhrate = round((hhlong/hhcount) * 1000) / 10 llrate = round((lllong/llcount) * 1000) / 10 lhrate = round((lhlong/lhcount) * 1000) / 10 hlrate = round((hllong/hlcount) * 1000) / 10 hhhlrate = round((hhhllong/hhhlcount) * 1000) / 10 lhllrate = round((lhlllong/lhllcount) * 1000) / 10 hhllrate = round((hhlllong/hhllcount) * 1000) / 10 lhhlrate = round((lhhllong/lhhlcount) * 1000) / 10 hhgrate = round((hhglong/hhgcount) * 1000) / 10 llgrate = round((llglong/llgcount) * 1000) / 10 hhrrate = round((hhrlong/hhrcount) * 1000) / 10 llrrate = round((llrlong/llrcount) * 1000) / 10 lhgrate = round((lhglong/lhgcount) * 1000) / 10 hlgrate = round((hlglong/hlgcount) * 1000) / 10 lhrrate = round((lhrlong/lhrcount) * 1000) / 10 hlrrate = round((hlrlong/hlrcount) * 1000) / 10 hhhlgrate = round((hhhlglong/hhhlgcount) * 1000) / 10 lhllgrate = round((lhllglong/lhllgcount) * 1000) / 10 hhllgrate = round((hhllglong/hhllgcount) * 1000) / 10 lhhlgrate = round((lhhlglong/lhhlgcount) * 1000) / 10 hhhlrrate = round((hhhlrlong/hhhlrcount) * 1000) / 10 lhllrrate = round((lhllrlong/lhllrcount) * 1000) / 10 hhllrrate = round((hhllrlong/hhllrcount) * 1000) / 10 lhhlrrate = round((lhhlrlong/lhhlrcount) * 1000) / 10 grate = round((glong/gcount) * 1000) / 10 rrate = round((rlong/rcount) * 1000) / 10 shhrate = 100 - hhrate sllrate = 100 - llrate slhrate = 100 - lhrate shlrate = 100 - hlrate shhhlrate = 100 - hhhlrate slhllrate = 100 - lhllrate shhllrate = 100 - hhllrate slhhlrate = 100 - lhhlrate shhgrate = 100 - hhgrate sllgrate = 100 - llgrate shhrrate = 100 - hhrrate sllrrate = 100 - llrrate slhgrate = 100 - lhgrate shlgrate = 100 - hlgrate slhrrate = 100 - lhrrate shlrrate = 100 - hlrrate shhhlgrate = 100 - hhhlgrate slhllgrate = 100 - lhllgrate shhllgrate = 100 - hhllgrate slhhlgrate = 100 - lhhlgrate shhhlrrate = 100 - hhhlrrate slhllrrate = 100 - lhllrrate shhllrrate = 100 - hhllrrate slhhlrrate = 100 - lhhlrrate sgrate = 100 - grate srrate = 100 - rrate marketcount = marketcount + 1 if close > open then marketlong = marketlong + 1 endif marketrate = round((marketlong/marketcount) * 1000) / 10 endif hhnow = high > high[1] llnow = low < low[1] hlnow = low > low[1] lhnow = high < high[1] gnow = close > open rnow = close < open if marketrate >= 50 then DRAWTEXT("Market ▲#marketrate#", barindex, 6, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) else DRAWTEXT("Market ▼#marketrate#", barindex, 6, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) endif uptotal = 0 downtotal = 0 if gnow then DRAWTEXT("Green ▲#grate#", barindex, 4, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + grate DRAWTEXT("Green ▼#sgrate#", barindex, 3, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + sgrate endif if rnow then DRAWTEXT("Red ▲#rrate#", barindex, 4, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + rrate DRAWTEXT("Red ▼#srrate#", barindex, 3, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + srrate endif if hhnow then DRAWTEXT("HH ▲#hhrate#", barindex, 1, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhrate DRAWTEXT("HH ▼#shhrate#", barindex, 0, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhrate endif if lhnow then DRAWTEXT("LH ▲#lhrate#", barindex, 1, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhrate DRAWTEXT("LH ▼#slhrate#", barindex, 0, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhrate endif if llnow then DRAWTEXT("LL ▲#llrate#", barindex, -2, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + llrate DRAWTEXT("LL ▼#sllrate#", barindex, -3, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + sllrate endif if hlnow then DRAWTEXT("HL ▲#hlrate#", barindex, -2, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hlrate DRAWTEXT("HL ▼#shlrate#", barindex, -3, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shlrate endif if hhnow and hlnow then DRAWTEXT("HHHL ▲#hhhlrate#", barindex, -5, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhhlrate DRAWTEXT("HHHL ▼#shhhlrate#", barindex, -6, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhhlrate endif if lhnow and llnow then DRAWTEXT("LHLL ▲#lhllrate#", barindex, -5, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhllrate DRAWTEXT("LHLL ▼#slhllrate#", barindex, -6, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhllrate endif if hhnow and llnow then DRAWTEXT("HHLL ▲#hhllrate#", barindex, -5, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhllrate DRAWTEXT("HHLL ▼#shhllrate#", barindex, -6, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhllrate endif if lhnow and hlnow then DRAWTEXT("LHHL ▲#lhhlrate#", barindex, -5, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhllrate DRAWTEXT("LHHL ▼#slhhlrate#", barindex, -6, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhhlrate endif if hhnow and gnow then DRAWTEXT("HH G ▲#hhgrate#", barindex, -8, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhgrate DRAWTEXT("HH G ▼#shhgrate#", barindex, -9, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhgrate endif if hhnow and rnow then DRAWTEXT("HH R ▲#hhrrate#", barindex, -8, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhrrate DRAWTEXT("HH R ▼#shhrrate#", barindex, -9, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhrrate endif if lhnow and gnow then DRAWTEXT("LH G ▲#lhgrate#", barindex, -8, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhgrate DRAWTEXT("LH G ▼#slhgrate#", barindex, -9, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhgrate endif if lhnow and rnow then DRAWTEXT("LH R ▲#lhrrate#", barindex, -8, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhrrate DRAWTEXT("LH R ▼#slhrrate#", barindex, -9, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhrrate endif if llnow and gnow then DRAWTEXT("LL G ▲#llgrate#", barindex, -11, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + llgrate DRAWTEXT("LL G ▼#sllgrate#", barindex, -12, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + sllgrate endif if llnow and rnow then DRAWTEXT("LL R ▲#llrrate#", barindex, -11, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + llrrate DRAWTEXT("LL R ▼#sllrrate#", barindex, -12, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + sllrrate endif if hlnow and gnow then DRAWTEXT("HL G ▲#hlgrate#", barindex, -11, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hlgrate DRAWTEXT("HL G ▼#shlgrate#", barindex, -12, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shlgrate endif if hlnow and rnow then DRAWTEXT("HL R ▲#hlrrate#", barindex, -11, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hlrrate DRAWTEXT("HL R ▼#shlrrate#", barindex, -12, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shlrrate endif if hhnow and hlnow and gnow then DRAWTEXT("HHHL G ▲#hhhlgrate#", barindex, -14, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhhlgrate DRAWTEXT("HHHL G ▼#shhhlgrate#", barindex, -15, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhhlgrate endif if lhnow and llnow and gnow then DRAWTEXT("LHLL G ▲#lhllgrate#", barindex, -14, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhllgrate DRAWTEXT("LHLL G ▼#slhllgrate#", barindex, -15, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhllgrate endif if hhnow and llnow and gnow then DRAWTEXT("HHLL G ▲#hhllgrate#", barindex, -14, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhllgrate DRAWTEXT("HHLL G ▼#shhllgrate#", barindex, -15, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhllgrate endif if lhnow and hlnow and gnow then DRAWTEXT("LHHL G ▲#lhhlgrate#", barindex, -14, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhhlgrate DRAWTEXT("LHHL G ▼#slhhlgrate#", barindex, -15, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhhlgrate endif if hhnow and hlnow and rnow then DRAWTEXT("HHHL R ▲#hhhlrrate#", barindex, -14, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhhlrrate DRAWTEXT("HHHL R ▼#shhhlrrate#", barindex, -15, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhhlrrate endif if lhnow and llnow and rnow then DRAWTEXT("LHLL R ▲#lhllrrate#", barindex, -14, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhllrrate DRAWTEXT("LHLL R ▼#slhllrrate#", barindex, -15, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhllrrate endif if hhnow and llnow and rnow then DRAWTEXT("HHLL R ▲#hhllrrate#", barindex, -14, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + hhllrrate DRAWTEXT("HHLL R ▼#shhllrrate#", barindex, -15, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + shhllrrate endif if lhnow and hlnow and rnow then DRAWTEXT("LHHL R ▲#lhhlrrate#", barindex, -14, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) uptotal = uptotal + lhhlrrate DRAWTEXT("LHHL R ▼#slhhlrrate#", barindex, -15, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) downtotal = downtotal + slhhlrrate endif upavg = round((uptotal / 7) * 10) / 10 downavg = round((downtotal / 7) * 10) / 10 DRAWTEXT("Avg % ▲#upavg#", barindex, -17, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) DRAWTEXT("Avg % ▼#downavg#", barindex, -18, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) if upavg > downavg then Difference = (upavg - downavg) DRAWTEXT("Avg Diff ▲#difference#", barindex, -20, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) marketdiff = (upavg - marketrate) else Difference = (downavg - upavg) DRAWTEXT("Avg Diff ▼#difference#", barindex, -20, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) marketdiff = (downavg - marketrate) endif if marketdiff > 0 then DRAWTEXT("Market Diff ▲#marketdiff#", barindex, -21, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(0,128,0) else DRAWTEXT("Market Diff ▼#marketdiff#", barindex, -21, SansSerif,Bold,10) COLOURED(128,0,0) endif return 5, 7, -16, -19, -22 |
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Very interesting indicator, it could be the basis of an AI system…no kidding.
Eres Grande¡¡¡…muchas Gracias.
Hola
Me parece muy interesante lo que has hecho, yo estoy queria hacer una estadistica similar, pero tengo problemas con el código. ¿podrias ayudarme?
I can’t help in Spanish! Maybe it is better to start a topic in the forums with your questions.
Hi Vonasi, great work! But what I do not understand is that the statistics change according to the number of bars you load. Would you have any explanation ? Thank you
Hi https://www.prorealcode.com/user/vonasi/ I am interested in in scanning for a similar setup where I want to find the HH & HL being formed for swing trading (not for individual candles). Similar for LH & LL for a down trend. Is there a readymade example I can have a look at? Thanks in advance – I am just learning so not sure if I am asking the right question 🙂
Minor Bug Fix Please download an updated version with a minor bug fix from here: https://www.prorealcode.com/topic/candlestick-probability-indicator-minor-bug-fix/