Same Candle Run Analysis Tool

Same Candle Run Analysis Tool

This Same Candle Run Analysis Tool can be used to analyse runs of the same colour candle in any market and on any time frame. Runs of up to 12 candles of the same colour are analysed.

It calculates a simulated result as if you placed a long trade at the close of a run of the same coloured candles and then closed it one candle later. This can give us an idea what has the highest probability of happening next based on historical data. Although it can be used on any time frame shorter time frames will be slow to calculate and the results fairly meaningless due to the amount of market noise. I would advise using it on anything from yearly to 4 hour time frames.

If you run it on multiple time frames then you can have a fairly good analysis of what is most likely to happen next. For example maybe there has been five years up in a row and the results tells us that the market is more likely to have a down year after five up years. The quarterly results might be five up in a row and the results tell us that the next candle is more likely to be a down quarter. The monthly results show that we have had one down month so it is more likely that the next is an up month but the weekly is showing three weeks down in a row and there is a 60% chance next week will be a down week. So we might look at the overall picture and decide to avoid long trades right now on that market.

The setting ‘CountAll’ can be turned on and off. If ON then the results are calculated using every occurrence of a run. For example a run of three up candles is in fact three runs of one up candle, two runs of two up candles and one run of three up candles and all will be calculated in the results. If set to OFF then just the first occurrence is used – so a run of three up candles for example must be a down candle followed by three up candles.

A spread amount can also be input and is deducted from the results of each trade. Set to zero if you do not want to analyse with spread.

The results returned are:
Wins – the number of trades that would have resulted in profit.
Bets – the total number of bets placed.
% – the percentage of wins to trades.
Total – the balance of all position outcomes.
AveReturn – the average return of all trades.

If you want to know what would have happened if you had gone short then obviously short trades would have resulted in the direct opposite results. So a 60% win rate for long trades would be a 40% win rate if you had gone short and a return of +1255 for long trades would be a loss of 1255 for short trades.

I advise making the indicator window full size and zooming in to the last candles to make the results more readable. Sorry if the columns do not line up very well but this is due to the limitations of text in PRT indicators.

I also have a version Same Candle Run Analysis Graph that returns the Total in graph format and I recommend using it alongside this tool as it allows you to easily see which results have been consistent over time.

I advise you to download the .ITF file and import it rather than cut and paste the code to ensure that you get full functionality.

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Risk disclosure:

No information on this site is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading may expose you to risk of loss greater than your deposits and is only suitable for experienced investors who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk.

ProRealTime ITF files and other attachments : How to import ITF files into ProRealTime platform?

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  1. Bard • 04/08/2018 #

    I was talking to a Machine Learning coder today who’s algos have apparently managed to get 70% accuracy on predicting Bitcoin prices. It got me thinking about your Candle Run analysis. Then I thought of the Heikin Ashi charts (and Renko) that I’ve been looking at lately – both with Joseph Nemeth who uses HA entries and this Heikin Ashi Trend strength screener:
    (I can’t link using Safari as the page jumps around when hitting the link button)

    I was wondering how easy would it be to convert this very interesting code you have to HA?
    I mean can you added something like:
    Close = Close = (Open+High+Low+Close)/4
    Open = (Open + Close) / 2 ?
    (Ps/ I also can’t add code using Safari and PRC Add PRT code)


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