Navigator Trading System

Reiner · Thu, 23 Feb 2017 16:57:59 +0000

Hi guys, The tendency of the last and first days of the month is one of the most well known and reliable statistical setups. This pattern has been working for decades and in many indices. I would like to share a trading system that based on the TDOM (trading day of the month) idea from Larry Williams one of the famous statistical traders. The basic idea is to short the market around the first trading day of the month and to turn the position at the statistical monthly turning point. The system uses smart position management mechanism such as order cumulation, position sizing based on historical monthly behavior and maximal position size monitoring. Money management will be done by procentage stop loss and take profit orders. The system is very simple but amazing profitable and works without any technical indicators. The idea looks like a holy grail but of course it isn’t and I would like to point two issues: – the algo is relatively long time invested (in average 43% of the month) and this means significant overnight costs for cfd’s and potentialy a higher drawdown risk – wide stop loss value for long positions, backtest shows only moderate losses but also a significant max drawdown which mean higher volatility of running P&L which some may find hard to handle. The so-called Navigator trading system works in all intraday timeframes and the backtest was done with 200.000 4 hours candles. Please find attached the first version for the DAX. Reviews and suggestions for improvement are welcome. Best, Reiner Navigator strategy offers a statistical advantage but is of course not a holy grail and there is no guarantee to make money with it. The system is optimized for historical data and historical gains are not a garantee to be successful in the future. I strictly recommend to adjust the position sizes to your personal account size and try first in demo mode. The results in life trading will differ from the backtest results. I also recommend to start in life trading with a small account size. Anyone can use the programs for free and at their own risk.

This topic has 151 replies, 37 voices, and was last updated 6 years ago by stockdemon.

Viewing 15 posts - 46 through 60 (of 152 total)

← 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 →

03/02/2017 at 7:12 PM #26980

Reiner

Hi zilliq,

I have read your comments and that make me think but the used risk code is only to play around. Each should adjust the max position size to it’s account size. The point here is that the guys go all-in with a draft version without checking the algo in demo first or start with a small size.

Best, Reiner

7 users thanked author for this post.

Potto, larouedegann, zilliq, Robin, Nicolas, Jesús, manel

Reiner
Participant

Topics: 3
Replies: 435
Been thanked: 1095 times

03/02/2017 at 7:14 PM #26981

CN

My bad, I meant navigator.

Just as a reference, I am NOT blaming this on anyone. I am happy that you contribute this much to the community Reiner.

Drawbacks are part of the game. Sad thing is that I didn’t close it before the Trump speech. Which I should have.

Thing is that I realy would like to continue with the system, seeing how I lost so much I might get back a bit. What do you think Reiner/guys? This big of a loss is pretty unusual but you never know.

Thanks again for everything

1 user thanked author for this post.

Nicolas

CN
Participant

Topics: 1
Replies: 156
Been thanked: 17 times

03/02/2017 at 7:46 PM #26987

manel

I think everyone (especially newbies) should read Reiners’ post in #26974 and #26980. Few words but they are very important. Always adjust the position size to your risk appetite, preferably start in demo mode first and ensure you have picked up the latest versions with any improvements/suggestions. We all want people to be successful here and these few suggestions should help ensure you are able to give yourself the best chance of success.

@CN – Am very sorry that you had to take a loss on the first time. It’s really just unfortunate timing esp with the speech that night. You seem to understand the flows of trading so that’s good at least and you have not taken it badly. I think the system has merit personally. The idea behind it is solid if you read the background on it and do some research on Google. So I think we should continue developing it (and it needs that). But you should perhaps reduce the size dramatically or follow in demo mode. At the end of the day, profits are a slow accumulation and require patience and if we stick with it (once its agreed by most here that the system works) then I’m hopeful that you should get back your losses and more.

I’m sure once we have a few more results we can then compare with backtest and understand if everything is operating as it should. As always, many thanks to Reiner for his time and contributions on here.

manel
Participant

Topics: 4
Replies: 259
Been thanked: 121 times

03/02/2017 at 9:16 PM #26996

zilliq

Hi Reiner,

Thanks for your comment

On Pathfinder this was really what you wanted to do ?, because as you see on my post on Pathfinder (not Navigator), the risk, with the line I mentioned, is much much higher than the 5 % who was defined at the beginning (Often 5-6 positions)

Thanks and Regards

zilliq
Participant

Topics: 58
Replies: 683
Been thanked: 152 times

03/03/2017 at 8:40 AM #27015

Reiner

Hi Guys,

For different reasons I decided to finish all my public projects in this forum. Thanks a lot for your support especially to Nicolas. I’ve learned a lot in the last year. This forum is a great source of PRT know how and inspired me very much.

Good trades, Reiner

Reiner
Participant

Topics: 3
Replies: 435
Been thanked: 1095 times

03/03/2017 at 8:47 AM #27016

CN

@reiner

Woah, that is realy sad to hear. The forum just lost alot of knowledge.

Is i because the system isn’t running as it should (we know it works, so it shouldn’t be that) or because other stuff?

1 user thanked author for this post.

gforton

CN
Participant

Topics: 1
Replies: 156
Been thanked: 17 times

03/05/2017 at 2:16 PM #27221

CN

How do I cut the size in half? I still want too use this live, just not with that size.

CN
Participant

Topics: 1
Replies: 156
Been thanked: 17 times

03/06/2017 at 9:44 AM #27286

Joachim Nilsson

CN – Change this

ONCE minSizeLong = 1 ONCE midSizeLong = 2 ONCE maxSizeLong = 4 ONCE maxSizeShort = 4

1
2
3
4

ONCE minSizeLong = 1
ONCE midSizeLong = 2
ONCE maxSizeLong = 4
ONCE maxSizeShort = 4

Joachim Nilsson
Participant

Topics: 4
Replies: 62
Been thanked: 18 times

03/06/2017 at 10:20 AM #27297

maleknf

just to confirm DAX 1 Short was opened on Friday @12012.3

regards

malek

maleknf
Participant

Topics: 0
Replies: 48
Been thanked: 9 times

03/06/2017 at 10:30 AM #27298

CN

@malek,

This is navigator, not pathfinder. nav has not opened a short pos.

CN
Participant

Topics: 1
Replies: 156
Been thanked: 17 times

03/06/2017 at 10:31 AM #27299

CN

@Joachim

See the diference in win/loss and in the numbers of trade. Why has that changed?

CN
Participant

Topics: 1
Replies: 156
Been thanked: 17 times

03/07/2017 at 12:43 PM #27532

blaker

Hi Reiner. Thanks for the strategy – looks very interesting.

You mention “The system uses smart position management mechanism such as order cumulation, position sizing based on historical monthly behavior and maximal position size monitoring.”

Can you elaborate on the how the order cumulation and position sizing is derived?

If we wanted to reduce the risk of the strategy, is there a way to cut the rate of which position sizing increases?

Many thanks.

blaker
Participant

Topics: 0
Replies: 1
Been thanked: 0 times

03/14/2017 at 3:44 PM #28532

manel

For anyone who is still following this, both Navigator V1 and V2 systems opened a long position on 10 Mar 4pm @ 11,956

manel
Participant

Topics: 4
Replies: 259
Been thanked: 121 times

03/14/2017 at 4:07 PM #28538

O-jay8

Yes I can confirm, Both Navigators opened a long position. But for me, Navigator V2 opened 11,954 and Navigator V1 11,956.
Both on demo.

O-jay8
Participant

Topics: 5
Replies: 207
Been thanked: 285 times

03/14/2017 at 7:29 PM #28559

Joachim Nilsson

@CN

I´m on my phone now so can´t check the code but isn´t it because of the accumulation?

Joachim Nilsson
Participant

Topics: 4
Replies: 62
Been thanked: 18 times
Author

Posts