Hi guys, The tendency of the last and first days of the month is one of the most well known and reliable statistical setups. This pattern has been working for decades and in many indices. I would like to share a trading system that based on the TDOM (trading day of the month) idea from Larry Williams one of the famous statistical traders. The basic idea is to short the market around the first trading day of the month and to turn the position at the statistical monthly turning point. The system uses smart position management mechanism such as order cumulation, position sizing based on historical monthly behavior and maximal position size monitoring. Money management will be done by procentage stop loss and take profit orders. The system is very simple but amazing profitable and works without any technical indicators. The idea looks like a holy grail but of course it isn’t and I would like to point two issues: – the algo is relatively long time invested (in average 43% of the month) and this means significant overnight costs for cfd’s and potentialy a higher drawdown risk – wide stop loss value for long positions, backtest shows only moderate losses but also a significant max drawdown which mean higher volatility of running P&L which some may find hard to handle. The so-called Navigator trading system works in all intraday timeframes and the backtest was done with 200.000 4 hours candles. Please find attached the first version for the DAX. Reviews and suggestions for improvement are welcome. Best, Reiner Navigator strategy offers a statistical advantage but is of course not a holy grail and there is no guarantee to make money with it. The system is optimized for historical data and historical gains are not a garantee to be successful in the future. I strictly recommend to adjust the position sizes to your personal account size and try first in demo mode. The results in life trading will differ from the backtest results. I also recommend to start in life trading with a small account size. Anyone can use the programs for free and at their own risk.
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