RSI , Stochastic and SMA showing direction. Stochastic not yet oversold/overbought.

RSI , Stochastic and SMA showing direction. Stochastic not yet oversold/overbought.

Hello,

Here is a strategy idea for GBPUSD H1.

  1. Stochastic showing momentum down/up
  2. RSI up/down (over 55 or under 45)
  3. SMA crossover for SMA10 and SMA5
  4. Stochastic not yet oversold (still over 55) or not yet overbought (still under 45)

Strategy was originally optimized IS for 2014-2017 and showed good result for 2013 – 2019. Years before that the result are not so good. Note that SL is set to 1000, which in reality means there is no SL until a new order is triggered in the opposite direction or the order meets its TP. Any ideas of improvement or tips, please share 🙂

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No information on this site is investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instrument. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Trading may expose you to risk of loss greater than your deposits and is only suitable for experienced investors who have sufficient financial means to bear such risk.

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  1. Francesco78 • 213 days ago #

    Beautiful thank you!

  2. Paul • 211 days ago #

    Nice one. Not trading every day makes a difference and improve results per trade substantially. Still has to run a SL like 2% and a smaller PT but curve looks great! Did not optimize the indicators.

    • PastaPesto • 209 days ago #

      Thank you Paul,
      Do you mean no trades during specific dayofweek and 2% from marketprice as SL?

  3. Alekos75008 • 210 days ago #

    great ! can you add stop lost to improve ?

    • PastaPesto • 209 days ago #

      Thanks Alekos,
      As I mentioned the Stop Loss is set to 1000. You can test different settings or maybe you can find a better kind of SL than pips.

  4. jebus89 • 209 days ago #

    Checked it on 200K bar test for GBPYUSD and it looks like a typically curvefit/overoptimized algo from 1999 – 2008~ meaning its flat and in the red.. then from 2008 -> today it looks great and amazing. So thats a red flag for sure.

    Another red flag is that it dosnt rly look good for any other market.. forex, stocks, indicies.. thats a red flag.

    Dosnt mean this wont work moving forward, but i would definitly be very carefull using this for live money.

    • PastaPesto • 209 days ago #

      Thank you for your reply jebus,
      1. As I said, earlier years arent so good, could be a problem.
      2. My opinion is that a strategy doesnt have to work on other markets. Its surely promising if it does but its not a absolute requirement for me. I have seen strategies working good on only DAX or FTSE for ex.
      I know its an endless discussion regarding what requirements to set on a strategy before going live, but its also one of the most important questions for us, so thank you for jebus for sharing your toughts on this one. It would be so easy if there was an easy answer for this quesion 🙂

  5. Paul • 209 days ago #

    Optimized the days in a week and it seemed that Tuesday and Friday are not good days to trade.
    I set cumulate orders to false to compare.
    Try 75k bars (from 2007), stoploss 2%-3% from entry-price, profit-target 0.40% and exclude those days, with only 1 trade long or short a day.
    I only optimize days to see how a strategy performs in generally and if it’s in balance.
    What I don’t like about the strategy is that i’am unable to build a useful breakeven- or trailing-stop in the strategy that works.

  6. PastaPesto • 208 days ago #

    Thanks Paul for the tips about testing balance.
    I am actually struggeling with breakeven or trailing stops an all my strategies. I never get it to be more profitable than my normal SL. 🙁

  7. bluetime6 • 74 days ago #

    Hello.
    Is the Strategy running live with any of you? Are there any results? Are there any deviations Backtest, Demo, Real?
    kind regards

  8. PastaPesto • 73 days ago #

    Hi Bluetime,
    I have been running this on a Demo since February. The results still within the same range as previous backtest. The % of winning trades are 72%. There was a drawdown in January, but nothing that stood out from earlier backtest. I would like to wait a bit longer in demo to confirm this one, but so far so good 🙂
    As said earlier the 200K backtest shows a really bumpy ride until 2008 or even to 2012 depending on how you look at it. That is a warning sign for sure, but I did my optimisation 2014-2017 and left the rest as Out of sample period. So there is some OOS time that shows good results. I like the fact that the period from 2018 and forward is looking good as I did no optimisation in that period.
    I hope that helps.

  9. Gubben • 61 days ago #

    I took the chance of running it live with some optimizations/modifications since 23 april and winrate is 78.5% , G/L ratio is 2.88 on 14 trades. So far so good! Also started on EURCAD and USDPY this month but will have to report on those later since they’ve only taken a couple of trades.

    • PastaPesto • 40 days ago #

      Hi Gubben,
      It would be interesting to know what changes you have done and also your backtest results.

    • Gubben • 32 days ago #

      @PastaPesto, for GBP USD mainly inspired by Paul it was 2% stoploss and 45 take profit, also no trades on fridays and maxorders per day is 2. Since april it has 84% winning trades and 4.18 Gain/loss.
      The other currency pairs are performing awful so far 😀 but it could be within the scope of a drawdown looking at the backtests. It hurts to look at but will let them go on for a while longer otherwise there is no point in running a live “test”.

  10. Gaby333 • 43 days ago #

    super this what I was looking for from Monday I will put this in real time to see what can do))Many thanks .

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