Hi Mark,

The seasonal adjustments of the Pathfinder DAX 4H version are the result of the backtest from Aug 2010 until  December 2016. On the equity clock webpage you will find a DAX statistic for the last 20 years. Here you can see that for instance  the probability in April, October, November and December is 70% and higher. Nobody knows how the prices will develop in the future but we can check the behavior in the past to find a statistical advantage – isn’t a 70% probability not a good setup  to increase the position size?

Pathfinder monitors the price trend with the help of the signal line and will deliver a trade signal when the system detect a breakout with a statistical advantage.  The seasonality mechanism is an additional step to calculate the position size for a quality trade signal. The system is still profitable with almost all settings and it’s your personal decision if you trade with one, two or more contracts.

I have compared the values with the result of the maximum available IG data history from 1991 compiled with an Pathfinder daily version and you can see the risky months. May be it’s a good approach to reduce the size  in the risky month to 1.

ONCE January1 = 3 //0 risk(3)
ONCE January2 = 0 //3 ok
ONCE February1 = 3 //3 ok
ONCE February2 = 3 //0 risk(3)
ONCE March1 = 3 //0 risk(3)
ONCE March2 = 2 //3 ok
ONCE April1 = 3 //3 ok
ONCE April2 = 3 //3 ok
ONCE May1 = 1 //0 risk(1)
ONCE May2 = 1 //0 risk(1)
ONCE June1 = 2 //1 chance
ONCE June2 = 2 //3 ok
ONCE July1 = 3 //1 chance
ONCE July2 = 1 //3 ok
ONCE August1 = 1 //1 ok
ONCE August2 = 1 //3 ok
ONCE September1 = 3 //0 risk(3)
ONCE September2 = 0 //0 ok
ONCE October1 = 3 //0 risk(3)
ONCE October2 = 2 //3 ok
ONCE November1 = 2 //1 chance
ONCE November2 = 3 //3 ok
ONCE December1 = 3 // 1 chance
ONCE December2 = 2 //3 ok

Cheers, Reiner