VUSA daily Buy and hold v2.0

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  • #32034

    Here is a Buy and hold strategy on Vanguard Funds Public Limited Companey – Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF

    Remeber you and you only are entirely responsible for: what and how you invest your money, your risk, you gain, your losses. So do you homework an research before venturing into investing and trading. This is just an example on how it could have been if you invested 4,7 years ago, not guarantee for the future.

    Cheers Kasper

    4 users thanked author for this post.
    #32038

    Settle down guys, Gains of +2500% is not correct. Sorry to spoil it all so soon- the explaintion will follow. But first a little intro.

    I wanted to make a lasting strategy. I am becomming a bit tired of trying to develop codes that enters and exits all the time- and at the same time to be profitable. I haven’t found any one yet that suites my risk profile for short term intradaytrading. A risk profile was something I heard about straight away when I began trading”you gotta have a riskprofile!!” was almost demanded when listing to various webinars and what knot. But as a noobtrader it didn’t know what to consider so how would I put one together?  I didn’t really think about it for a while or did take the time to define if, before I read this: ” I am willing to risk a lot” -the explaination was, this actually only goes in the profit direction- so what people are really saying is that they are willing to profit a lot, but if you were loosing- it dosen’t really apply here. So I needed to start think of the risk, because I saw a lot of strategies on this site, not having defined any Stoploss and take profit that will result in an RR- RiskReward of at least 1.6 (including myself). Some of the most popular strateguies here will risk half of your equity in one trade, and more or less have a constant RR on 0.05- even though it backtest very well. But backtest is not live trading- regardles! Well when I read trading books, and about statistics,- these things should be well defined or you will loose your money to the broker. It is just a statistically fact- that risking more than 1-1,5% of your equity pr trade -will eventually lead to ruin and margin calls. So why? Again people are willing to make a lot of money and are blinded by these facts and don’t think it will loose because of the “out of this would” backtest gaining 500 or 800% in 2,5 year backtest. Let e put it this way. If you could be constant proffitable by a 25% a year- Goldman Sacks would call you and offer you a leading traders position- hands down! I am not saying that making more is not possible- you often read of people making a living of daytrading with a profitable og 80-150% a year the last couple of years. The documentation says, that is actually only 5% of all traders that could make a living out of it. The last book I read about trading stated that noone including the world leading hedgefund managers would beat the market 3 years in a row. You just never hear about the failing part. So why can’t they or you for that matter beat the market? Because you are the market. Anyone beating the market 3 years in a row- is just pure luck- at least that is what I read. Only one that beats the market is the Brokers, but they are not really  trading- only making money of you- whether or not you loose or win a trade. The overnight fee, the comission and spreads, slipages, and minimum stoploss that are juuuust that big that your code won’t make a profit. Countless times I have made a perfect code, only to prove it non profitable because of these factors. The best trader from a brokers perspective is the one that makes 100 of trades or more a month- but not really loosing or gaining to much. If he looses he will stop trading, if he wins, he will be put in the direct market and not the b-list. Direct market is not guaranteed to fill you orders, like the b-list. B- lists bets against the brokers- hence marketmakers- and 95% are loosing. The worst traders in a brokers perspective is the buy and hold ones… So that is what we will do. Warren Buffet did not become the worlds most profitable invester by daytrading- he’s buying and holding- and he’s is saying “go ETF’s”.

    In good faith the referances for the recent books I read was. The little book of bulletproof investing, The little book of Behavioral Investing, The element of investing

    I made up this code, for a buy and hold strategy- but what I really set out to do was to get all the factors included. The comission, the overnightfee and the spread- well there is no spread in ETF’s, so forget about that. This took actually over 10 times the hours that actually spend coding the strategy. Just remember these things matters! And what I initially thought was the culprit turns out not to be- the overnight fees is the bastard, not the comission. The equity (13086 Euro) dispalyed here by PRT is without any cost. I want to calculate them manually in the following.

    As I got the result it yield a staggering gain of +2500% in 4,7 years. But as we will see, it’s not. My main problem was to prove these things and calculate the numbers in a Graph like manner. So now I turn to the community to try and disprove my strategy, and calculation. Has I been mistaken or made an error?- forgotten something? I read that when a sucessfull hedemanager found a company he’d like to invest in- he’d tried to destroy that company with all he got- if it was not possible, It a good investment. The case will hold even through bad times. So please comment and try and take the code and my findings apart

    These was my bullets.

    • A buy and hold strategy.
    • Make a monthly payment
    • Make 2 buy’s a month
    • Consider overnightfees and comissions
    • Calculate the True equity that also takes your monthly payment in considerration.
    • Calculate the correct earnings in %
    • Risk profile
    • Other considerrations.
    • Broker cost in total

    So lets look at the things in details in the following posts.

    •  A buy and hold strategy.

    I think it’s pretty clear of why I wanted to pursue this strategy when reading the intro for this post. I also wanted to make a long team investment- sort of like my house. I don’t buy and sell houses unless it’s been on hold for at least 6 years- it’s simpley not proffitable selling below these years- statistically. The longer the better. And the morgage on a house loan in Dk is as low as 1% at the moment.

    •  Make a monthly payment

    Making a monthley payment is like having a saving plan. Long term. It makes sense, when buying and holding long term

    •  Make 2 buy’s a month

    Making 2 buys a month is just because I could. It took some brainpower and soduko-like ressources to come up with the code for this- and I loved the challange. Actually I think 4 buys a year would proberly be better in the long run. But it should easely be coded. I use a 10 period EMA, a weekley low, a monthly low for indicators. I want to trade on a retracement. But it does not guarantee a trade every 15th day, so a choice is to either make a forced trade at the end of the 14 day trading period or accumulate positionsize if one or two periods is not traded. Both function is in the code- should I have forgotten an alignment of odd dates and nontrading days.- also a mix of the two seems to work pretty good. To diversify is good in the long run. No doubt the code can be optimized by doing it on a lower TF. Your entry will be more correct- it’s finetuning, remember to adjust the indicators accordingly. It’s just that 1Day TF give os the most data for backtest

    The Graph codefor checking the trades, and also which condition has triggered- for the sake for easyness- copy and paste the section- overwriting the orginal GRAPH section in the ITF file.

     

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #32041
    1. Consider overnightfees and comissions

    It took a couple of tries and emails from IG’s part to finally come up with the formular for my chosen Instrument- the Vanguard Funds Public Limited Companey – Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF. For a positionsize of 5 it would yield (5 x 35.6425 x (2.5% + 0.25%))/365. This would give a total of £.0.0134 per evening. I rewrote the formula to overnightfee=(positionsize x tradeprice x 0.0275)/365. Comission is a ballance. The commission pr trade, charge is 0.10% of total tradeprice or $10, whichever is higher- so the code takes care of this, but around 290 positions is the ballance. It also dependant on the current price. However more or less 600 position buy a month is rather costly. We could take trades 4 time a year, so comission becomes insignicant. But for large account that can afford these trades it’s left as 2 trades a month. We will see that the comission is almost not important anyway. I make a total of 10 x 2 positions a month which is 20 euro a month in commision. In the end it’s a matter of choice of how much you spend to make money vs. How much you can afford save each month

    The Graph code for checking the overnight fee, comission, is

    #32044

     

    • Calculate the True equity that also takes your monthly payment in considerration.

     

     

    We need to calculate the accumulated tradecost, so we can calculate the TrueEquity . Because PRT dosn’t take this into considerration. So we calculate TrueEquity = floatingprofit + AccumulatedTradeCost + Capital. Floating profit deducts overnightfee and Comissions.

     

     

    The Graph code for checking the  is (line )

     

    #32047

     

    • Calculate the correct earnings in %

     

    Oh this had me going. It seems like PRT wants to display a staggering gain of  +2500% in 4 years. This is not true as written in the intro. It calculate the gains from your initial capital. But remember this strategy cost a bank transfere every month. I want to take this in consideration when I calculate the gain. Your capital should be as low as tradeprice x positionsize +25%- and then transfere positionsize x tradeprice x 2 every month- roughly 700 Euro every month (adjusted accordingly with the current tradeprice). The initial capital was 500, though I just wrote othervice- it would take to much time to change all in this post to correct it to 200 Euro. Anyway it will only yield more gains of +6000, which is even more far from the truth

     

    Anyway finally, the moment you all been waiting for. The Gain for this strategy is 48,9% for 4,7 years. Thats more or less 10,5% a year. I don’t know how to back calculate compounding interest, but that is a thing we need to take in considerration. Compounding Interest is what will make it worth while in a period of 20 years.

     

    The Graph code for checking True Profit in %

     

    #32050

     

     

    • Risk profile

     

    For a low risk ETF such as VUSA my risk porfile would derive from what I read and think is reasanable. For a long time investment I don’t want to be in a market that looses more than 25% in a one year period. This could be 20, 25 or 33% but you have to find other ETF’s that accomodate those riskprofile 40 years back. So I calculated the marketchange=((close/yearhigh)-1)*100. yearhigh =highest[365](high). This should not fall below -25- hence nont more than -25%. The QUIT section is placed last in the code because if not, it  seems like all the graphs doesn’t display before the period yearhigh has. So please leave it there

     

    The Graph code for checking the Marketchange

     

    #32053
    • Other considerations

    There are lot of consideration and if far beyond this scoop here. First of all, There is an initial monthly fee for enabling the live feed for the stock exchange in PRT its roughly around 2-5 $ a month. Also if you do’t make 4 trades a month while having enablet PRT it will also cost you a monthly fee around 40 Euro. This actually adds up, so please if considering this code, make sure you are making 4 trades a month. But mainly the concern is the next bullit

    •  Broker cost in total

    I calculated the brokerprofit like this

    Floatingprofit with the overnightfee and comission minus floatingprofit without the overnightfee and comission. That will leave the overnightfee+comission which would be an expresion for Brokerfee. It just for reusing some of the code that I did it like this

    Then a CH% calculation

    BrokerProfitinProcent=(((floatingprofit-Brokerprofit)/floatingprofit)-1)*100

     

    As we can see the overnight fee takes up aproximate 28% of your profit… I’ll just leave this hanging for a moment.

    ….

    I asume this is the correct calculation, but of cause I could be wrong. I have double checked it several times, and I could be starring blindly on the number now- so please verify this or disprove it. 28% of your gains is rather large despite the initial ovenight fee is given as 2.75%/360. it adds up. I have not researched other brokers for this, but I think it’s a bit high

    At last Thanks for reading on my new project- please comment 🙂

    Cheers Kasper

     

    The Graph code for checking the Broker cost

     

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #32058

    Kasper, thank you for your effort to add more substantial strategies to this site. Especially the fact that you invested a lot of time to calculate all the cost factors of a buy and hold strategy is very valuable to this community in my opinion.

    Considering your request for feedback:

    Can you compare the results to a single investment at the beginning of every year? The amount invested will of course be bigger. My previous calculations have shown that this is usually more profitable than the regular investment.

    Can you check the performance in the 2008-2009 bear market? I treat this as a test for any long term system to be bulletproof.

    Looking forward to your reply.

     

    Edit: removed the request for a test of the japanese bear market.

    #32060

    Wow, many thanks Kasper!

    I’ve read your first few posts above … all good stuff and well written … but I need coffee now 🙂

    I like good things in small bites (ooeerr! 🙂 so I’ll come back later for more.

    GraHal

    #32061

    Hi Derek and Grahal. thanks for you feedback.

    @Grahal Coffee is good 🙂


    @Derek
    . The VUSA ETF has not been around for that long, how ever I think it follows the S&P 500 index more or less. If we take a look at the 2008/2009 it took a dive of 50% within a year. after 25% the code would have stopped, and listing to the news you would have known about the rescission period. I remember specifically making my absolute worse investment ever on a Thursday. Monday it was all over the news that we were now facing a global financial crises. Knowing what I know today I think I would have sold on that Monday- but no.. I made the very common mistake of being hopeful. it went down from a price at 145- I sold on 25 years later.

    I actually already found an error in my calculations. let see if you can spot it 🙂 also there could be more, so it would be a good joint venture to do it like this.

    So to understand you correct. you want to make one trade a year, and not 2 times a month, and compare the results?

    Cheers Kasper

     

    #32067

    Yes, as you already expected in one of your posts, fewer investments with larger amounts may turn out to be more profitable.

    So, instead of recoding the whole time of investment part of the code, this page may come in handy: https://ycharts.com/indicators/sandp_500_total_return_annual

    Maybe this can be done faster with Excel than recoding the trade-timing function.

    #32084

    Impressive work, and a dose of realism for us all.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #32087

    @Derek thanks for the info. It’s usefull when trying to pick a market to invest in. The point I was tryimg to make here though, was the cost for a trade. And how it would impact your equity. The error I discoverd was that I didn’t accumulate the comission in the code. I only decuct one comisson. It dosn’t make things better only worse. So both the overnight fee and comission plays a significant role on your gain. Later I will try and document this.

    Cheers Kasper

    #32092

    @Casper: Exactly. I suggest the following solution to the commission and interest rate problem.

    • Since your goal is to follow a major index it is easy to simply follow the market directly via a CFD.
    • By definition there are no interest payments for futures and forward CFDs are instruments based on the real underlying futures contracts.
    • Forward CFDs do not charge extra commissions
    • For indexes like the S&P 500 the current farthest contract is the June contract. The contract was first offered in January, so there are about 6 months without interest payments. The spread is acceptably low with 1 point. The drawback is that the rollover into the december contract has to be done manually when the june contract is ending.
    • The counterparty risk is rising since we are now trusting the CFD broker for the long term to pay back the investment several years into the future. So, it is advisable to keep the account size below the threshold that is protected in case of default.

    It is not a completely autmated system anymore when trading futures but without commissions and interest rate payments the performance increases dramatically. I also think that the dollar value to volatility relationship should be normalized between your example ETF and the direct investment into the index via a CFD.

    Hope this helps.

    Happy Easter to Denmark!

    #32103

    @Derek Well my goal was to make a long term investment, and at the same time when reading about it, I became aware of how much the broker cost was an issue. They also suggested the ETF S&P 500 so naturally I’d started there.

    I will look into the Future S&P 500 because if I understand you correctly there is no overnight fee- only 1 point spread.

    Never the less I’d still like to show my findings here- I think it proves a point.

    for all the GRAPH’s section I posted line 20 and 24 need to be added the variable “countoftrades”

    It will look like this.

    At the same time we can now see that the commission is accumulating. also the Broker profit raised to 43.5% and your own profit fell to 44.8%. So basically the broker profit takes around half your profit… Just saying!

     

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