Success on backtest but not in reality?

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  • #9376 quote
    reihana9
    Participant
    New

    Hi Guys,

     

    Any reason why a backtested strategy would work great but fail when put into practice? Is this common or is it likely that, if backtest shows positive results over long period of time (3 years), there’s probably something worth pursuing?

     

    Thanks in advance.

    #9381 quote
    K12AN
    Participant
    Junior

    Very common. It is to do with the shortcomings in the backtesting function – which shows that profits will always be achieved before loss is incurred.

    In real trading the losses can (and often do) occur before any profit targets are achieved.

    #10592 quote
    Elsborgtrading
    Participant
    Veteran

    Hi Reihana9

    I had similar experience, and also wrote a post on the matter. http://www.prorealcode.com/topic/the-holy-grail/

    I have some ideas to why that happened, however it’s not confirmed by any one yet.

    Br. Elsborgtrading

    #10866 quote
    Stef
    Participant
    Average

    Hi @reihana9,

    This is very common and may be caused by a number of reasons:

    1. The backtesting software does not work correctly. PRT, as an example, does not support look-inside-bar testing. If a target and stop is hit within  the same bar, PRT will assume that the target was hit first; which is not necessarily the case.
    2. You have not included spreads or commissions – or the correct spreads or commissions.
    3. Your strategy is curve-fitted. It was optimized/over-optimized for the data it was tested on. Read up on walkforward backtesting and monte carlo simulations for ideas on how to avoid curve fitting.
    4. The past is not a prediction of the future. Also, markets change. Try and test your strategy on different timeframes and different instruments/markets to see how robust the idea/strategy is.

    PS: A lot of strategies on this forum aren’t of much use, as they are curve fitted and a lot of the time do not include any costs/commissions. A strategy that backtests well without costs, quickly becomes unprofitable if costs are added.

    Hope this helps!

    Regards

    Stef

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Success on backtest but not in reality?


General Trading: Market Analysis & Manual Trading

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reihana9 @reihana9 Participant
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This topic contains 3 replies,
has 4 voices, and was last updated by Stef
9 years, 6 months ago.

Topic Details
Forum: General Trading: Market Analysis & Manual Trading
Language: English
Started: 06/14/2016
Status: Active
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