Fibonacci Trading Backtest

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  • #204531

    Dear Team,

    can someone please write me a trading program, so I can backtest that?

    it’s related, somehow, to the zigzag indicator. The scenario is as follows:

    a swing is retraced min 50%, max 85% and at least with 2 bars..

    entry is  after a close below 38.2% retracement of that same fib ret.

    stop-loss is after a close above 50% or 3 bars sideways action. profit taking is at 127.2 and 138.2% projection of that first swing and its retracement.

     

    I have no idea how I could do it and if the procedure asking for these things is completely different, excuse me please. any help is greatly appreciated.

     

    Thank you,

    Michael

     

    #204536
    • Only post in the language of the forumthat you are posting in. For example English only in the English speaking forums and French only in the French speaking forums.
    • Do not double post. Ask your question only once and only in one forum. All double posts will be deleted anyway so posting the same question multiple times will just be wasting your own time and will not get you an answer any quicker. Double posting just creates confusion in the forums.

    I deleted your post wiritten in English in the German forum.

    Thank you 🙂

     

    #204537

    Yeah, thank you. I am quite new here. You are fast. Is the request in general okay?

    #204691

    There you go (I tested it on DAX, Daily TF):

    I only have to add the SIDWEWAYS exit. Can you explain what you mean exactly by sideways?

     

    #204693

    I used this custom indicator to plot and debug FIBO levels:

    variable EndBar is used to debug code, so that you can ban the indicator from advancing after any given BARINDEX bar.

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #204698

    Here is an updated version with some fixes:

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #204705

    Wow, thanks a lot!!! how have the results been on DAX?

    I did it by hand on SPX from 2020 to now today. that looked quite promising. but I used the “human” approach (especially, when it took to long to reach levels)

    I will test your latest version now. many, many thanks!

    #204706

    Ciao Roberto,

    I loaded the indicator and the backtest. but…it’s not doing what I want ;D

    I tested on various indices and stocks but it returns only a handful trades from early 2020. That doesn’t match with my “hand analysis”…

    My humble assumption is that there are not enough highs/lows recognized.

    I used this modified indicator from user AVT “ZigZag2” attached to show highs and lows and with a cp=1, it’s not perfect but provides a good starting point with a lot more retracements to check for signals. but… I am certainly not able to translate this into a system.

    Can I ask you to give it a [third] try? 🙂

     

    Mille Grazie,

    Michael

    #204737

    Both the built-in ZigZag and the ZigZag2 you posted repaint, as you can see from the attached pic (it means that the signal is actually returned later, but the code plots it on a previous candle).

    Try adding the attached version below your chart and set it to histogram.

    In any case, I can make a trading system out of it. Probably having to wait for a ratracement, some delay in swing signals is not so important.

    So, basically, all you need is what you have written in your first post, where the UPper and LOWer swing points are those plotted by ZigZag2, right?

    Which and instrument TF do you plan to use most often?

     

     

    #204770

    I use SP500/ES and that system should work on daily candles. But you could also use TSLA or QQQ for example, as I assume, that more volatile underlyings take the most out of that strategy. That said, I don’t think the underlying matters, as my main point is the recognition of the retracement (more than 50%) and the outbreak above 0.236 retracement (or below for shorts, I’ve written 0.382 before, I think, but that’s easily adjustable).

    And yes, the ZigZag2 is not perfect in identifiying each LOW and TOP but reasonably good to make for a good Backtest indication.

    I am aware that the top/lows are only recognised later, but in most cases, the 0.236 line is not crossed directly after the low is in place. so that’s the reason, why the ZigZag indicator is mentioned in the handbook as not usable for an automated system 😀

    Many thanks for your effort! I am really looking forward to it.

    Michael

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