Mother of Dragons trading strategy…

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  • #119504 quote
    nonetheless
    Participant
    Master

    New Money Management, increases position size by 1 for each 1000 profit, margin is constant at ~13% of funds.

    Insane result, not for the faint hearted…

    DJ-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5.jpg DJ-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5.jpg DJ-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5.itf
    #119511 quote
    nonetheless
    Participant
    Master

    Correction: due to tiered margins, to keep the requirement at a constant % of funds, position size would have to peak at 55. Slightly less insane and probably better that way.

    #120913 quote
    nonetheless
    Participant
    Master

    New improved recipe, now with added vitamins.

    Long and short in one code or separated. Robustness tests for v3.5L and 3.5S are roughly similar as v3.3 – the long is a bit worse, the short is a bit better. WF is fine but I’ve only got 100k to work with so it could still be the mother of all curve-fits.

    Most grateful if someone could run it on 200k to see if it doesn’t completely crash and burn.

    // Definition of code parameters
    DEFPARAM CumulateOrders = false // Cumulating positions deactivated
    DEFPARAM preloadbars = 5000
    //Money Management
    MM = 0
    if MM = 0 then //MM = 0 for optimization
    positionsize=1
    ENDIF
    if MM = 1 then
    ONCE startpositionsize = .4
    ONCE factor = 10 // factor of 15 means margin increases/decreases @ 6.6% of strategy profit; 10 = 10% 20 = 5% etc — optimize for best result, profit vs drawdown
    ONCE margin = (close*.005) // margin value of 1 contract in instrument currency
    ONCE maxpositionsize = 55 // DOW €1 IG first tier margin limit
    ONCE minpositionsize = .2 // enter minimum position allowed
    IF Not OnMarket THEN
    positionsize = startpositionsize + Strategyprofit/(factor*margin)
    ENDIF
    IF Not OnMarket THEN
    if startpositionsize + Strategyprofit/(factor*margin) < minpositionsize THEN
    positionsize = minpositionsize// keeps positionsize from going below allowed minimum
    ENDIF
    IF startpositionsize + Strategyprofit/(factor*margin) > maxpositionsize then
    positionsize = maxpositionsize// keeps positionsize from going above IG first tier margin limit
    ENDIF
    ENDIF
    ENDIF
    
    TIMEFRAME(2 hours,updateonclose)
    Period= 490
    inner = 2*weightedaverage[round( Period/2)](typicalprice)-weightedaverage[Period](typicalprice)
    HULL = weightedaverage[round(sqrt(Period))](inner)
    c1 = HULL > HULL[1]
    c2 = HULL < HULL[1]
    
    indicator1 = SuperTrend[5,22]
    c3 = (close > indicator1)
    c4 = (close < indicator1)
    
    indicator4 = CALL "Moving Average Slope"[52,1](close)
    c11 = (indicator4 > 0)
    c12 = (indicator4 < 0)
    
    //PRC_Stochastic RSI | indicator
    lengthRSI = 12 //RSI period
    lengthStoch = 9 //Stochastic period
    smoothK = 11 //Smooth signal of stochastic RSI
    smoothD = 4 //Smooth signal of smoothed stochastic RSI
     
    myRSI = RSI[lengthRSI](close)
    MinRSI = lowest[lengthStoch](myrsi)
    MaxRSI = highest[lengthStoch](myrsi)
     
    StochRSI = (myRSI-MinRSI) / (MaxRSI-MinRSI)
     
    K = average[smoothK](stochrsi)*100
    D = average[smoothD](K)
     
    c13 = K>D
    c14 = K<D
    
    TIMEFRAME(15 minutes,updateonclose)
    indicator2 = Average[5](typicalPrice)
    indicator3 = Average[7](typicalPrice)
    c7 = (indicator2 > indicator3)
    c8 = (indicator2 < indicator3)
    
    Period2= 19
    inner2 = 2*weightedaverage[round( Period2/2)](typicalprice)-weightedaverage[Period2](typicalprice)
    HULL2 = weightedaverage[round(sqrt(Period2))](inner2)
    c9 = HULL2 > HULL2[1]
    c10 = HULL2 < HULL2[1]
    
    TIMEFRAME(5 minutes)
    
    Period3= 15
    inner3 = 2*weightedaverage[round( Period3/2)](typicalprice)-weightedaverage[Period3](typicalprice)
    HULL3 = weightedaverage[round(sqrt(Period3))](inner3)
    c5 = HULL3 > HULL3[1]and HULL3[1]<HULL3[2]
    c6 = HULL3 < HULL3[1]and HULL3[1]>HULL3[2]
    
    // Conditions to enter long positions
    IF c1 AND C3 AND C5 and c7 and c9 and c11 and c13 THEN
    BUY positionsize CONTRACT AT MARKET
    ENDIF
     
    // Conditions to enter short positions
    IF c2 AND C4 AND C6 and c8 and c10 and c12 and c14 THEN
    SELLSHORT positionsize CONTRACT AT MARKET
    ENDIF
    
    SET STOP %LOSS 2.3
    SET TARGET %PROFIT 1.7
    //================== maximise les gains ==========
    if longonmarket and C6 and c8 and close>positionprice then
    sell at market
    endif
    
    If shortonmarket and C5 and c7 and close<positionprice then
    exitshort at market
    endif
    //==============limite les pertes
    
    if longonmarket AND  c2 and c6 and close<positionprice then
    sell at market
    endif
    If shortonmarket and c1 and c5 and close>positionprice then
    exitshort at market
    endif
    //trailing stop function
    trailingstart = 35 //trailing will start @trailinstart points profit
    trailingstep = 3 //trailing step to move the "stoploss"
     
    //reset the stoploss value
    IF NOT ONMARKET THEN
    newSL=0
    ENDIF
     
    //manage long positions
    IF LONGONMARKET THEN
    //first move (breakeven)
    IF newSL=0 AND close-tradeprice(1)>=trailingstart*pipsize THEN
    newSL = tradeprice(1)+trailingstep*pipsize
    ENDIF
    //next moves
    IF newSL>0 AND close-newSL>=trailingstep*pipsize THEN
    newSL = newSL+trailingstep*pipsize
    ENDIF
    ENDIF
     
    //manage short positions
    IF SHORTONMARKET THEN
    //first move (breakeven)
    IF newSL=0 AND tradeprice(1)-close>=trailingstart*pipsize THEN
    newSL = tradeprice(1)-trailingstep*pipsize
    ENDIF
    //next moves
    IF newSL>0 AND newSL-close>=trailingstep*pipsize THEN
    newSL = newSL-trailingstep*pipsize
    ENDIF
    ENDIF
     
    //stop order to exit the positions
    IF newSL>0 THEN
    SELL AT newSL STOP
    EXITSHORT AT newSL STOP
    ENDIF
    //************************************************************************
    ArnoldB and Paul thanked this post
    DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.3.jpg DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.3.jpg DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.3-vrt.jpg DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.3-vrt.jpg DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5L.jpg DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5L.jpg DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5S.itf DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.3.itf DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5L.itf DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5S.jpg DOW-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v3.5S.jpg
    #120933 quote
    Zigo
    Participant
    Master

    I’d tried it but give an error in indicator 4 .

    Therefore I have change it:

    indicator4 = LinearRegressionslope[52](close)

    Because I have not the call Indicator “Moving Average Slope[52,1](close)

    The test in attachement

    200K.png 200K.png
    #120938 quote
    nonetheless
    Participant
    Master

    Thanks for that @Zigo. The OOS is not disastrous but with a 94% win rate it should make more money. The curve doesn’t really get going until late 2018, ie my optimization.

    Might be better with the moving average slope, which is here if you’re interested:

    Moving Average Slope

    #120948 quote
    Francesco
    Participant
    Veteran

    In order for the screenshots: 3.3, 3.5L,3.5S on 200k.

    I think only 3.3 is acceptable in terms of OOS (also if the initial flat curve is synonymous of an high optimization on 100k as you said); but i tried a robustness test on it (results in attached) and it is not bad! I think it’s worth trying on demo for the next month.

    3.3.jpg 3.3.jpg 3.5L.jpg 3.5L.jpg 3.5S.jpg 3.5S.jpg rts.jpg rts.jpg
    #120961 quote
    nonetheless
    Participant
    Master

    Thanks Francesco — agree that it’s ‘not too bad’ but obviously I was hoping for a better curve. The long and short results are apparently with MM, so a bit misleading, but at least it’s not a bust. At this stage a bit of forward testing is the only thing for it. Thanks again.

    #120962 quote
    Francesco
    Participant
    Veteran

    If you tell me what variables are worth to optimize i can try to do that for 200k and show you the results 🙂

    #120965 quote
    nonetheless
    Participant
    Master

    Problem is, there’s so many of them! — probably too many. My guess is that the exit variables — stop loss, target profit, trailing stop and step, might have a bigger effect than the entry variables. I’d try those first.

    #120981 quote
    Francesco
    Participant
    Veteran

    Tried to work on exit variables but nothing changed. I think the “problem” is on the entry ones, but they are too many as you said 🙁

    nonetheless thanked this post
    #120992 quote
    nonetheless
    Participant
    Master

    Not to worry, I’ll leave it on Demo for a while, see what happens…

    #122905 quote
    Fran55
    Participant
    Veteran

    Hi…

     

    Bearish and bullish MOD work perfectly.

    I have modified them a little, they are incredible.

     

    I would to Contact you vía email… I am sure they are not the only jewelry You have.

     

    Im gain 7600 pips in Dow Jones in one month.

    And im gain 1600 pips in dax un one month with muy versión of Vectorial Dax.

     

    Thanks!!!

    #122910 quote
    nonetheless
    Participant
    Master

    Hi Fran55, good to know it’s working for you. Here’s a couple of others I finally got around to for the DAX and SP (US500) — collect the whole set.

    I haven’t forward tested either of them yet so let us know how you get on. Money Management is optional.

    GraHal, ArnoldB and von thanked this post
    DAX-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v1.itf SP-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v1.itf
    #122942 quote
    swedshare
    Participant
    Senior

    Really good strategy, great work @nonetheless and thanks to everyone else who contributed with good codes for MM, TS etc!

    #123003 quote
    EricN78
    Participant
    Average

    @nonetheless : DAX-5m-Mother.of_.Dragons-v1.itf with 200K candles, spread 2.6, MM=0

    Dax3.jpg Dax3.jpg Dax1.png Dax1.png
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Mother of Dragons trading strategy…


ProOrder: Automated Strategies & Backtesting

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This topic contains 522 replies,
has 50 voices, and was last updated by LaurentBZH35
4 years, 10 months ago.

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Forum: ProOrder: Automated Strategies & Backtesting
Language: English
Started: 01/21/2020
Status: Active
Attachments: 195 files
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