Interesting approach pableitor
Reminds me of an approach developed by Art Collins which identifies a “bias”. Create a variable called bias, if the first trend criteria is met then bias = bias + 1. For each trend criteria that is met then you add +1 to the bias variable.
Once bias exceeds a threshold, eg 5, the algo trades long or short
//Variables Parameters
Once Bias = 0
//Creating Bias Scenarios
If Close>average[p,t] Then
Bias = Bias +1
EndIf
If Close>highest[50] Then
Bias = Bias +1
EndIf
If RSI[14] > 30 Then
Bias = Bias +1
EndIf
If Close>Open Then
Bias = Bias +1
EndIf
If Close>Close[1] and Close[1]>Close[2] and Close[2]>Close[3] Then
Bias = Bias +1
EndIf
// Conditions to enter long positions
If Bias>5 Then
Buy PositionSize CONTRACTS AT MARKET
ENDIF
thanks for that, definitely worth playing around with.
To my mind it only makes sense with bias less than the total number of scenarios though, otherwise you might as well just add all the Bias Scenarios as conditions.
But if it could work with any 3 out of 5, for example, that could be a useful way of ‘accruing probability’.
They could conceivably be weighted, so that some counted more than others ???
I like your idea of weighting the different scenarios, will give that a try.
As already mentioned here, the perfect trend indicator does not exist. That’s why I try to determine the trend of the current market phase with relatively simple means and to use it. Sometimes the current market phase is only 10000bars long (TF M5), sometimes 50000bars. I can perhaps say I am optimizing today, others say you are lagging behind the market. If you re-optimize every few weeks. But for me this method seems to work quite well. If the result curve flattens out, it’s time to re-optimize. Maybe someday there will be a perfect trend over the last 10 years… but I don’t believe in it.
I think that the approach could be different: by identifying market phases (such as pullback, lateral movement, accumulation, distribution, ..) we don’t have to determine if the market is trending or not, because if we are not in one of that identified phase, then the price movement is sufficient to ride it to extract some money. It’s a bit like turning the problem upside down.
thanked this post
Sounds logical. But how would you implement that in the code to exclude the non-lucrative market phases?
Sounds logical. But how would you implement that in the code to exclude the non-lucrative market phases?
That would be the 1 billion indicator !
here’s a short trend indicator that never fails:
if opendayofweek = 5 and (Russia is about to invade Ukraine) then
sell 1000 contracts at market
endif
It gives an unknown command ?
yeah, the coding for that bit in brackets needs some work … but you get the idea.
And how would you try? 😉
ok , I will give you the one and only trend indicator that will make you rich, it works 99.99% of the time 🤣 :
if pableitor is longonmarket then
sell 1000 contracts
elsif pableitor is shortonmarket then
buy 1000 contracts
endif
We can’t use the data of another instrument. But V12 will allow to look at the data from other traders ?
Cool !
@pableitor, I know it feels that way sometimes – we’ve all been there!
