Optimization is not synonymous with over-optimization.
Concerning backtests, it is important to compare them with the same data: start and end date, spreads used, exact same instrument?
Aren’t the results presented by this company based on a portfolio of strategies rather than on individual backtests?
This applies to all strategy codes that can be downloaded here for free or for a fee on the internet. The assessment of a backtest according to one’s own analysis and one’s own view of what is good or bad is rather subjective.
I am well aware that you want to recoup your costs, but a strategy that does not ruin your account is already, in my opinion, not so bad, here as elsewhere, nobody will be able to tell you 100% that the future will be as pleasant as the past 😉
This being said, if you can test in demo for a good period of time, everyone will be able to make their own opinion and take note or not of whether these systems are worth it or not.
– Very true about optimization. But when I see moving averages like 63 and 89, or in this case a stop of 1.61%, then I get a bit suspicious regarding over-optimization. But that is most likely subjective as well.
– Not sure what you mean with the same start and end date. If I download a strategy from here or anywhere else, I would test it on my available 100k of data right? Because I can’t have anymore historical data that what I have available. But of course, correct spread and instrument is a must.
– “[] but a strategy that does not ruin your account is already, in my opinion, not so bad[]”. Totally agree about the future and the past. But I must say I expect more from a strategy than you described there. I’m a rookie in this though, only have 4 strategies on real money. But all 4 are winning and making good profits (one of them are very slow though). For me, a “not so bad” strategy is one that is break even (or better). A strategy that is losing in the long run is not a good strategy in my book, and should be replaced in my portfolio. But again, in a couple of years, I might think the same! Maybe it’s my new-beginners-luck that is talking here. 🙂
– I think that is a part of the problem. 3 weeks of testing (the trial lasts that long) is really not that long test period. For me it would be way too early to run on real money with that small testperiod.
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