Pathfinder Trading System

• 10/21/2016 at 7:08 AM #15248
  reb

  It could be a solution, you will earn fewer than the “normal” strategy, but your risk will be smaller too.

  I read in several forums, articles that 1k capital for 1 contract (1€/point) is a good ratio (bigger capital you have and fewer contracts you trade, better it is).

  It avoids not to loose your money but you are not undercapitalised so your account will resist better

   

  

  reb

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  10/21/2016 at 7:51 AM #15254
  silotests

  As I see it, the greatest risk is in the beginning?
  While the capital increase, the risk is reduced?
  Is this correct?

  

  silotests

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  10/21/2016 at 8:05 AM #15255
  miguel33

  Reb, in principle you might be right, but I think it’s a risk you can take. To lose all the capital deviates sfortura have to take at least 5 or 6 consecutive losses now or a collapse (slippage) remarkable.

  I’m real from August with good results but maybe just a coincidence. (I hope not)

  

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  10/21/2016 at 9:14 AM #15259
  Brage

  Hi guys

  I’m trading with IG and have some questions before deciding going live with Pathfinder DAX. Is any of you trading live on IG? If so, what is your experience so far? Is it working ok compared to the backtest results?

  
  @Reiner Is there any particular reason why you trade with IB instead of IG?

  As I understand the system is optimized for IG 24h. There is/was a discussion about this and IG:s pricing outside the underlyings market hours. Is there a reason with the current Pathfinder version to be cautious going live with IG?

  About capital. Isn’t the systems max drawdown a minimum and on that a buffert?

  Thanks!

  

  Brage

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  10/21/2016 at 9:41 AM #15261
  miguel33

  as I have already written on the dax they are real in August with good results. Working with IG

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  Brage

  

  miguel33

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  10/21/2016 at 10:24 AM #15262
  reb

  Hi roxxuz,  Hi Miguel

  You re right 2k is sufficient if everything goes well. After several trades is your capital bigger (normally), so you will reduce the risk.

  BUT if you loose 2-3 trades in a row at the beginning, ….

  Other example, the strat  takes 15 positions and you have 2k capital. Draghi, Jelen announces something and the market goes on the wrong way for you.

  After a variation of 1%, your account is killed. After an BCE announcement the DAX variation can be 2-3 or 4%

  To my opinion, to trade with Pathfinder with 2k is very dangerous. With 10-15k, this strategy is very interesting, and your risk is low

  

  reb

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  10/22/2016 at 8:37 AM #15304
  miguel33

  speak the truth Reb,
  but not all have 10-15 k € to be invested on an index. I started with 2k and me and went well (for now). You can always be integrated later. however, in principle, you said the right things.

  

  miguel33

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  10/22/2016 at 1:05 PM #15309
  Reiner

  Miguel, I don’t test Pathfinder with currencies until now. Currencies are not my preferred instruments maybe somebody else with more experience can verify if Pathfinder’s concept will work with that asset class.

  best, Reiner

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  miguel33

  

  Reiner

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  10/22/2016 at 1:32 PM #15310
  Reiner

  Hi Nyborjare1981,

   

  I have seen you get already some answers to your question. Of course you can also trade Pathfinder with an 5K account but I strongly recommend to reduce the position size (e.g maximum 4 contracts) as well. Please also reduce the saisonal pattern multiplier to a maximum value of 2 (e.g. for coming November and December).

  The calculated drawdown for e.g. the DAX is best case around 20%. A good approach to determine the required account size is to double the drawdown. You also could start with a max position size of 1 verify the results and when you are profitable and trust the system increase your risk. I personally trade Pathfinder with an 10k account.

  best, Reiner

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  miguel33

  

  Reiner

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  10/22/2016 at 2:14 PM #15311
  Reiner

  Hi Brage,

  Since mid of July I traded previous DAX versions but not continuously. I can confirm that the real trades are in general like the backtest trades sometimes with a slippage of 1 or 2 points. I’m trading DAX V5B2 in real mode with an 10k IG sub account exclusively for Pathfinder since start of October.

  I used Pathfinder also sometimes for my DAX swing trading with my IB account made a manual “shadow trade” with a DAX future or a DAX ETF. You could stay with IG, I made good experience with that broker, they are reliable, spreads are OK and there is nothing to complain from my side.

  Pathfinder in general is trading only in the defined trading window (e.g. DAX from 8-22 with a 2 point spread). In backtest mode there were some stop loss trades outside of the trading window but in real mode this never happened so far.

  Regarding account sizing see my comment above. I think it’s not a “shame” to start with only 1 or 2 contracts, observe what happens and increase the risk step by step when you trust the system.

  best, Reiner

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  Mark, Nyborjare1981, Brage

  

  Reiner

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  10/24/2016 at 2:41 PM #15407
  Mikael Andersson

  Hi,

  Here are calculations of max drawdowns from different strategies both separate and combined. Perhaps to further help with account sizing…
  Hopefully without mistakes!

  DAX = Pathfinder v5b2 1EUR minicontract Jun 2012 – now
  FTSE = Pathfinder v5b2 1EUR minicontract Jun 2012 – now
  DOW = Pathfinder v4 1EUR minicontract Jun 2012 – now
  GOLD = Pathfinder v5b3 1EUR minicontract Jun 2012 – now
  OIL = Pathfinder v1 1EUR minicontract – Aug 2015 – now

  DAX
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2012-11-14 09:00:00        11        -1011.9

  FTSE
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2015-06-28 21:00:00         8        -1642.4

  DOW
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2015-09-28 09:00:00        18        -2754.7

  GOLD
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2016-04-28 17:00:00        19          -1555

  OIL
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2016-08-04 09:00:00         7          -1198

  Combined strategies…

  DAX, FTSE
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2015-06-28 21:00:00         2        -1146.2

  DAX, DOW
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2012-11-14 09:00:00        21        -1286.8

  DAX, FTSE, DOW
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2015-06-28 21:00:00         8        -1781.9

  FTSE, DOW
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2015-06-28 21:00:00        11        -2506.6

  DAX, GOLD
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2012-11-16 13:00:00        14          -1968

  DAX, FTSE, GOLD
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2012-11-16 13:00:00        15        -2123.3

  DAX, FTSE, DOW, GOLD, OIL
  Date                Positions DrawdownInEuro
  —-                ——— ————–
  2012-11-16 13:00:00        15        -2123.3

  Gain
  FTSE 27415.3
  DOW  15943.3
  DAX  40902.6
  OIL  26473.0
  GOLD 27701.1
  Total gain 138435.3 EUR

  Thanks,
  Mikael

  

  Mikael Andersson

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  10/24/2016 at 2:56 PM #15408
  JC_Bywan

  Hi Mikael Andersson,

  Please update your country flag in your profile. Thank you 🙂

  (see attached picture: go to top right corner, choose “settings” and then scroll down to “Location”)

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  JC_Bywan

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  10/24/2016 at 5:07 PM #15414
  albertoM

  Hi everybody,

  I started to follow the topic and the strategy few weeks ago, I lounched on my IG account few days ago, and I see today at  5PM (CET) the first position on DAX cfd opened (long @ 10775) , can anyone confirm that it’s correctly setted up?

  Thanx!

  

  albertoM

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  10/24/2016 at 5:26 PM #15419
  Reiner

  Hi Alberto,

  The signalline crossed over previous weeklyHigh at 1700. In my real mode account the trade was made at 10778.

  best, Reiner

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  albertoM

  

  Reiner

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  10/24/2016 at 6:05 PM #15433
  albertoM

  Thanks Reiner for you quick feedback, I just wanted to check if everything was correctely setup cause I have some doubts about the correct setting on the graphics (I’m not sure if I should change also in the PRT setting the trading hours shown in graphic only 8AM-10PM), and I was wondering if it will have effect on real trades…

  

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