Is there anybody really winning?
- This topic has 62 replies, 26 voices, and was last updated 3 years ago by
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It is not easy, but it is possible to make profits in the long term. You just have to meet two basic requirements:
- Edge – you need to have a strategy (algo or discretionary), which in the long run wins more than loses. And it is possible, but it requires many years of learning and thousands hours of testing or real experience.
- Capital – you must be capitalized enough to survive periods of losses and continue trading. And equally important, even if you have enough capital, you can’t risk too much, but set the right size of position.
I have been professionally involved in trading for over twenty years and, as I have noticed, there are usually two types of traders – uneducated or undercapitalized. It is very rare to find a trader who has a profitable strategy, sufficient capital and he does not risk too much.
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Here is my experience after 4 months of being in this forum. I decided to run my live portfolio 2 weeks ago and these are the results.
I state that this post is purely informative, and will be the first and last, but probably on another platform i will track my results as RoboFuturesTrader is doing.
I know that 2 weeks are worth absolutely nothing and this could be question of pure luck, but I find it very interesting to note how, after a huge drawdown just three days after starting it, the portfolio managed to recover easily with a 700+ euros runup. Synonymous of robustness?
All this, just to answer the question “Is there anybody really winning?”. I think yes, it can be possible with a well structured portfolio and a nice money and risk management.Position size: between 250 and 300 euros
Number of algos: 8 + 1 added two days ago
Capital: 2kResult: +19%
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Why you so mad with the life Oscar? Chill 🙂
There was an highlighted disclaimer: “I know that 2 weeks are worth absolutely nothing and this could be question of pure luck” so no one in this forum is basing his life on my stupid post; i was just trying to make a contribution on this very interesting topic sharing my first days of experience, not trying to push people to waste all their money on the markets.
In this topic some people already listed your points of view (that i share, otherwise I would not have highlighted that sentence) but without being rude and aggressive like you.
There are other people like robofuturestrader that share their portfolio results, and also if it is a 2 weeks history i find interesting following his path, because i love everything that involves this world.
I also would like to do a separate portfolio results tracking as i said in my last post, and i think people would be interested like how they are for robofuturestrader.The only useless post here is yours IMHO, and wishing the covid-19 to those who thanks my posts is really disgusting.
I hope you can understand the sense of this forum and the respect for the other people.@OSCARDAX – There are some simple rules that everyone using the forums is expected to follow. Your post has broken one or more of these rules.
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Guys, question is “is there anybody really winning” .. and Francesco answered the question. Ok, that’s just 2 weeks, but he’s winning. Winning in a long run, ok but what’s a long run?
There are as many ways to interpret and answer the question as there are traders and / or strategies.
Examples:
_ Most private investors invest in accounts remunerated by their banks, are they profitable in the long term? Yes, even having bad years.
_ Some day traders only work 3 days a week (I know some), after a month they have traded 12 days, almost half the time of another day trader, how to measure the performance between these 2 traders? Who has worked enough to say that he is a winner in the long run ?!
_ A swing trading trader who executes 3 orders per month, from what moment can we consider that he is a winner in the long term?
In short, all that does not mean much, if Francesco stops trading tomorrow, he will have been a winner, the main thing is to be in the comfortable zone where you say, ok, I am satisfied, I have won enough, I stop! There yes, you will be a winner and you can say it.Thank you for respecting the opinions and opinions of everyone, the forum is there to help everyone move in the right direction, everyone goes through the same stages in trading and in learning what it really is. We all need motivation and not bad vibes at all. I reopen the subject, thank you not to poison things in the queue.
It happens to me too, the second order is resubmitted usually around 4 seconds later so if you are unlucky there is a bit of slippage there
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I started trading with Forex and Commodities in 2011 and till few months ago I have been trading manually only. It took me 5 years to get to break-even and burning 2 accounts; but starting from 2017 I have been constantly profitable (average > 25% ROE per year, just two quarter in red). I am a scalper, using a combination of 4 indicators to select the trades that should only go in the direction of the daily & hourly trend (trend following system, if there is no trend it means for me no trade, game over). If there is a trend in place, then the challenge move to entry in sync with the market momentum and to do so I use STOCH indicator (not very sophisticated, I know; but it does it works). I might consider to trade the 30min TF or the 15min TF but not below that, as the number of fake signals are significantly higher. Stop loss is based on the product daily volatility (standard deviation) and the take profit is defined by 4 years historical data to derive the probability of closing @ target price. Other key pillar of my approach is to trade only when there are NO major calendar announcements the day after. To avoid volatility against my position. My trades are taken in evening / night and expected to be closed the day after. I trade in the night also because I have a daily job and I cannot do anything on daytime.
Now, let me answer a question you certainly have @ this point: Mister, why not continuing doing manual trading if you are so profitable and why you don’t scale up the funds?
I did not stop trading in manual, still doing it. But just reduced, to free-up some hours for auto trade. My researches, preparation and manual trading is done only in the evening, usually after dinner. When a trade is identified, I sometimes need to stay awake in the night to get the momentum right. The ROE above did not come for free and with a cost of my personal life.
The question of leveraging up on funds: have you ever tried to do so? If you did, you know already that there is a huge emotional / pshyco difference between managing 40k funds in leverage and 400k or more. The level of emotional impact on yourself change completely – you can’t overnight massively scaling up the amount of money put at risk without getting an increased fear of losing big. If you are interested in getting deeper on this subject I recommend to watch Mark Douglas You Tube free videos and also to read his most famous book: Trading in the Zone. You can scale up, but very very gradually and in a long run. Take it slow, take it easy, is my suggestion.
But don’t get me wrong. I love trading, I could not stay without the trill, the challenge. But I also want to have my sleeping hours back and I am also curious to explore the Algo world and trying to replicate my experience and performance of manual scalper into a program (or many of them).
My last comment: I fully agree on the point already made by other traders of having 10 – 15 different strategies heavily back tested and with a solid edge but NOT correlated. I am also on the opinion that there is a value in having many OK-isch algo in action, instead of one holy grail single scenario. It is also more fun, isn’t it?
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… and to answer SMF1 original question: yes, there are people making money with Algo. One was Bill Benter.
But it took his entire life to do so, not just few months of back test.
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Hi
I am currently running my own strategy, called Piranha, as well as Dragon (posted by ). Whilst Piranha is live there is plenty that I am learning from ProRealCode Library, and have a few versions to work through before I post. Dragon can be found using this link;
https://www.prorealcode.com/topic/mother-of-dragons-trading-strategy/
Equity curve started a little shaky as I changed a few things on the fly, but it has taken off these last couple of weeks.
The time frame I trade on is either 3 or 5 mins, using a range of higher time frame filters – a few from this Library – so big thank you to everyone! My advice, keep it simple, and research research research as there are a lot of interesting ideas on this website.
Good hunting!
S
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