Is there anybody really winning?
Tagged: Profitable straregies
02/11/2019 at 11:12 AM #91023
I just added a comment on another Thread that is worth a link into this discussion.
I can say that for the last 2 months or so the Funds shown in IG for each of my 4 Accounts are increasing for the first time since I started trading Auto-Systems 3 years ago!
If you are showing similar winning results across a full Forward Test Account then please could you share what you are doing / have done to get to your current in profit / winning status?02/11/2019 at 11:32 AM #91024
This is one of my demo accounts and I can say exactly how the nice gain was achieved. I decided to put some averaging down strategies on forward test – really just to see how long it took before an account killing event occurred. For some reason I keep coming back to averaging down ideas and I know that I shouldn’t so I thought that if I killed an account it would stop me from looking at them again. Killing an account hasn’t happened yet but I came close once. Before testing I massively increased my starting balance and I have a lot of very correlated strategies so it is a very high risk of death portfolio! What it has so far proved is that averaging down (buying an index as price falls and selling when price rises – which is what all the big banks do every day) is very profitable if you have a big enough starting capital. So if you have lots of money it is easy to make lots of money and if you don’t have much money then it is easy to lose it quickly.
The equity curve is not very consistent because at the end of last year I had a lot of platform issues that meant that most of my strategies stopped opening positions for about three months and I have had many other problems with individual trades that have been orphaned and so are not shown in the results so basically as a forward test the results are pretty meaningless.
You must be logged in to access attached files.02/12/2019 at 11:03 AM #91158
Killing an account hasn’t happened yet but I came close once.
Interesting! So do you think you will go Live one day soon with your best Averaging Down strategy / System?
What is the max drawdown (per 1 contract / lot size) experienced thus far on your best Averaging Down strategy / System? And what market is that on please?02/12/2019 at 12:55 PM #91176
I doubt I will put it live as the risk is far too high. If I had £50k that I din’t mind losing then I would for fun!
I haven’t checked the exact draw down of every strategy but I think the biggest draw down so far for one strategy on level stakes has been about £5k but there is always the potential for much bigger! Even though it is only demo it still gives me a sinking feeling in my heart every time a strategy keeps buying as price keeps falling.
Mainly on DJI and SP500.02/12/2019 at 1:00 PM #9117802/13/2019 at 11:23 AM #91272
Wow… £50k could buy you some used boat!
Yes but it wouldn’t be an investment or a gamble as boat values only go one way and you are expected to keep pouring more money in to them every so often!02/13/2019 at 1:23 PM #9128202/13/2019 at 1:42 PM #91283
Open a short position in Boats!
Unfortunately all my money is currently long on boats! It’s a very long term position – I’ve been holding it for 18 years now. To be honest I’m in for so much now that I can’t ever sell the position!02/20/2019 at 5:05 PM #91849
Did you read the book from Kevin Davey: Building Winning Algorithmic Trading Systems?
He gave two example starategies which he trades or traded live for EURUSD, if I am correct, for daytime and nighttime. I tried to duplicate his daytime strategy so far for fun but I am not coming close to his results at all, even with optimising all the data. See below my code.
Did you perhaps try the same?
Maybe not the right thread but Kevin Davey got mentioned in here a lot.
Best regardsEURUSD 1h Kevin Davey123456789101112131415161718192021222324252627282930313233343536DEFPARAM CUMULATEORDERS = false // cumulate orders if not turned offDEFPARAM PRELOADBARS = 10000// define intraday trading windowONCE startTime = 120000 //140000ONCE endTime = 220000 // 230000Zeit = time >= starttime and time <=endtimexb= 5 //2-5y = 20 // 70-80pa = 18 // pipaddsl = 28 // 20 - 40Prof = 309 ////trade = 0hoch = high >= highest[xb](high)tief = low <= lowest[xb](low)if not onmarket and Zeit thenif hoch and close < close[y] thensellshort at high+pa stop //stop?//trade=trade+1endifif tief and close > close[y] thenbuy at low-pa stop//trade=trade+1endifendifif time >= endtime thenexitshort at marketsell at market//trade=0endifSET STOP LOSS slSET TARGET PROFIT prof02/20/2019 at 9:49 PM #91877
Hey, yes ive read the book and yes ive also tried to duplicate the strategies to see what would happen. Im not sure why the results differ so much from what he says, but i can only imagine he didnt trade cfd. Might it be just “different data”? Not 100% sure, and honestly it dosnt really matter to me. I didnt expect to get any system from the books or podcasts he has been on, rather the way of thinking when it comes to trading. He’s methods and ways are very similar to my methods and ways, thats why i enjoyed reading his book. Ive also “studied” one of the years where he said he got really lucky in copper and you can “see the trade” he did and how that helped him greatly in that year of the competition hehe, a bit of luck it seems that one.
1 user thanked author for this post.02/25/2019 at 12:41 PM #92249
The book was really helpful. Thanks for mentioning it. I will look into the other books you mentioned.
It was interesting to read, how he approaches the questions of optimisation.
Especially the way he monitors his strategies was enlightening. I created the spreadsheets directly in Excel as well 🙂 It is really helpful to visualise the excpected equity curve from the BT and the actual Equity curve from your Live and/or Demo trades.03/08/2019 at 8:10 PM #93232
Hey there, im glad you liked my post. Wanna add a couple of things:
When i first started i belived i needed 50-100 lines of code with crazy custom-made indicators and machine learning and 1000 variables all lining up to give me the holy grail of systems.
Now however i see that its much much more easy to run a bunch of “OK – Good” systems rather than tinkering making “perfect systems”. I didnt even know it but i discovered that this is also the mantra of one of the best traders out there: Kevin Davey. He’s preaching that running 10+ diversified, non correlated algos are far superior than running 1-3 systems that looks “amazing” in backtest, and i couldnt agree more. If you run 10 OK non correlated strategies, you might see 1-2 loose, 1-2 win, 4-5 doing nothing 1 day.. But 1 year later when all of your 10 algos are profitable you will have experienced (hopefully) a much smaller drawdown and a bigger runup because of the diversification of systems and hopefully markets and directions (long and short).
So far i got 12 systems running live, but the majority is Long only in stock indicies. Meaning when times are shitty and volatile in the stock markets, im experiencing drawdown because my systems are way too correlated. Im working on diversification every day now. Trying to short stock indicies, trying to create systems for other markets and so on. I have also done analysis on my current systems and their correlation and its actually surprisingly good considering that the majority is Long only. Because some are breakout and some are mean reverting, some are in the US, some in europe (dax), some are 30 min timeframe, some are on daily timeframe, they do trades on different days and different methods. So im getting some diversification but the stock markets are correlated for sure and 1 huge fake spike up could activate 4-5 algos that go into instant stop loss if the move up just comes crashing down the next minutes. its all part of the game..
Regarding my “amazing profits”, i have 1 algo that is my first profitable algo (the one im talking bout in the post “thoughts on profitable…”, its very much profitable today and doing a great job in the Dax even tho the Dax is down like 20% from peak high now. (long only) so its very possible. But I also have a code that is trying to “buy the dip” in nasdaq and seeing “dips break down” day after day after day, for months, has been rough. it has been bleeding money for the past couple of months, but hopefully whenever the markets return to new highs i will be ready.
my philosophy when it comes to trading systems are: Be 100% sure that even if markets go down -20% you will not bleed to death!!!!! Risk management is priority #1 when making systems. You should not have to manually turn on and off systems. If you do that then there has to be a reason. if you believe that the reason = true, just test it! If the reason is “finance numbers coming out” then just manually check the charts and trades on the days in your backtests where important numbers came out, check the results and do what you need to do accordingly.
So yea some of my strategies have been bleeding as the markets have dropped, some have made amazing profits while markets have dropped. that is diversification and that is “the holy grail” in my opinion. Keep creating more and more systems rather than increasing the amounts of shares/contracts youre buying.
Oh btw my most profitable Dax code consists of 2 conditions for buying and 1 for selling (+ stop loss, profit target, and trailing stop loss) So if youre not counting the trailing stop loss its basicly like 10~ lines of code tops.
Some of Kevin Daveys most profitable systems use no indicators! (Maybe 1 as a filter) but he uses alot of “Higher highs” and “Lower lows”. Maybe that will help you.
Also another tip that alot of the pro’s use is this: “Define the “Time” your trade needs to setup” So what exactly does this mean? Well if your on the daily timeframe and you see a move up testing the area around the highest high for the past 10 candles, you can try something like this:
condtion 1: high > highest high past 10 candles
condition 2: close< highest high past 10 candles
(So far meaning that the high of the candle 3 candles ago was above the highest high, but it closed under it)
Condition 3: close  < close 
condition 4: close  < close
condition 5: close crosses over close 
This is honestly just something i wrote now from the top of my head but basicly it means that we see a test of the highest high, then a couple of candles going down before the re-test of the highest high level and it breaks above the last 3 candles.
I have now defined the “time it takes for my setup” and the whole setup. I could go more spesific and say that the difference between close and close  has to be such and such++
But yea thats an idea that dosnt require any indicators, and maybe it would work better if we said “Close > daily average(close)”, maybe not. test, try and so on.
Thanks a lot…. Can we say that the pattern you are describing is a “Cup & Handle Pattern” ?03/11/2019 at 10:38 AM #93316
Well to be honest u can call it whatever u want. I wouldnt call it anything else then the name i have for my strategy if that makes sense.
I dont look for “patterns” in the sense of “head and shoulders” and try to code said pattern. Im looking for patterns that happen again and again, without exactly being the “original old school” patterns u where taught on youtube..04/13/2019 at 12:19 PM #96342
I’ve been consistently profitable for over a decade now – Very few things actually work in the real world as you have to be absolutely nailed on in terms of execution and trade management – I don’t frequent many forums though as I can’t be doing with all the hype04/13/2019 at 1:23 PM #96346
I’ve been consistently profitable for over a decade now
So it’s safe to say you are earning your bread then eh? Sorry couldn’t resist! 🙂
I guess you are 100% manual trading?
If you are kind enough to share one of your manual strategies and the wizards on here (also kind) coded it up as an Auto-System then you could make money while you sleep! 🙂