Are we all deluded?

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Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 54 total)
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  • 06/12/2018 at 1:45 PM #73011
    Eric

    It depends of the system

    but if using crossings of two moving average for buy and sell and have big losses and low number winners

    it would work to switch (in theory)

    but often its a zero sum game and IG is the only one making money

     

     

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    avatar GraHal
    06/12/2018 at 7:23 PM #73032
    Vonasi
    ChrisNYE wrote:

    I did not paper trade or demo my system went straight to live account and have lost thousands.

    I have strategies that I have now had on forward test for over four months which are profitable but I still won’t just put them live. I will now go back and study them again and try new things that I have learned or discovered since I started them on forward test. If I can’t improve them then I may put them live. You need a lot of patience in this game to build confidence in your ideas and strategies. One of the first steps is to learn to feel good about not being on the market and then with time you build confidence in your ideas and strategies and then and only then you put them live. Certainly not after just optimizing a backtest! I did that once – lost a couple of hundred pounds and told myself that that was an expensive lesson but a worthwhile one.

    06/12/2018 at 8:50 PM #73034
    ChrisNYE

    Yes I am backtesting with tick by tick mode.

    To answer Erics question – I even thought that by using the worse backtest optimisation results that cleared out my account balance and reversed the paramatares it would work and produce a profit equal to or close to the original loss – but it didnt which I thought was very odd.

    06/12/2018 at 9:10 PM #73035
    ChrisNYE

    My strategies are very simple either a 2 or 3 EMA. I optimise the entry but set a 2:1 R2R, meaning willing to risk $500 to make $1000 each trade. I want to keep my system as simple as possible. One thing is I do not want is a buy and hold strategy, I am a trader and see this as passive income if it works out.  You read everyones posts and everyone has a different time frame some use 15 mins some use daily, light years apart if you ask me. For me my main goal is profit, followed by an income stream no matter how small a profit is always a good thing. I do not want to sell AUD/USD and cover at 68cents. More than happy to take 60 pips here and there, providing my strategy has me making a profit. I feel daily charts is missing my goal of regular profits. I feel the best time frame for me is 4hr but then I read a recent post and the guy said he has his best stratgeies on 15 mins and that he is unlikeley to look at anything above 1hr.

    Forums are great if the person on the other end is experienced and knowlegable and not just a 14yr old keyboard commando. I find it usefull if people can just be direct and say 15 mins is the best for short term quick profits and daily charts are used for buy and hold. People dont need to give out their code, but be willing to give more than just a post. There must be an easier way than backtesting every time frame known to man surely????

    My expensive lesson is nearing 20k in 5 months – mind you from my backtesting alone losses are about 6k. I used to trade manually before – BIG MISTAKE. This is not easy and will take time – just wish I didnt throw $20k down the toilet.

    Confused as hell.

    Chris

    06/12/2018 at 9:41 PM #73036
    GraHal

    If I were you Chris (and I’ve been there too!) I would cease all Live trading right now!?

    Move over 100% to Demo / Paper Trading only … even manual trade in Demo?

    Keep on Demo trading until you see consistent profits week in week out?

    What is the point in risking real money until you can prove to yourself that you can make money with virtual money?

    And if the main profits you make in Demo comes from manual trading then be very careful and keep lot sizes at a minimum if / when you go over to Live as – I’m sure you know – a whole load of psychological factors come into play manual trading Live that may not be there manual trading Demo?

    Best thing is to treat virtual money same as real money and keep Demo account balance same as your real account balance and most importantly Demo Lot size same as Real.

    And if you have any thoughts … I’m gonna get that 20K back if it kills me … then pack in altogether for a month or two until you see sense, else your 20K loss may turn into a 40K loss in a lot less than 5 months!?

    ChrisNYE wrote:

    mind you from my backtesting alone losses are about 6k

    I’m confused with the above … how can you lose anything from backtesting??

    Best Regards
    GraHal

     

    06/12/2018 at 9:51 PM #73037
    ChrisNYE

    The system I backtested/optimised for 6 months was profitable so I went live with it – sorry for the confusion.

    I have closed all auto trade systems and taken out 98% of my account from IG to stop me from getting a twitch to trade until I have sorted this out.

    Grahal are you a buy and hold trader or trade for short term profit?

    06/13/2018 at 9:18 AM #73061
    GraHal

    I am both in a way, I have shares I trade longer term (days to months) with my long term broker, but I am deffo short term on PRT / IG (seconds to minutes).

    I am always on the quest for that 1 or 5 min AutoSystem, but I do have Systems on Forward test in Demo at 15 min, 1H. 4H, and starting a 1D TF today even  … so I guess I am all over the place! 🙂 🙂

    I try to work my PRT trading so that my stash is back in my pot when I go to bed! 🙂

    I have at times had my mob next the bed with alerts set if price < or > etc and I hate it!

    8 hours sound seep is all important to me else I am demotivated, got no spark / interest and and well grumpy! 🙂

     

     

    06/14/2018 at 12:50 PM #73201
    jebus89

    @ChrisNYE Ur systems are not robust and 6 months is nothing nothing nothing!

     

    i would never trade something that is not backtested 5-10 years at least. And every year should be green.

    If u give me 5 moving averages and 6 months of data ill curvefit the fuck out of that chart haha.

    Moving averages alone is not usually a very good strategy. This is what 9/10 newbs start to look at and they go right into curvefitting.

    And u write that uve lost alot just running systems directly into live. This is why u put it in demo first! 🙂

    06/14/2018 at 1:26 PM #73204
    GraHal

    I admire @ChrisNYE for his openness and honesty and I’m enjoying the many questions he is raising and answers from the Community.

    Chris knows where he has gone wrong and he is now doing his level best to learn from his mistakes.

    06/14/2018 at 9:34 PM #73246
    ChrisNYE

    Thank you grahal some people forget that they were once at my stage.

    All my systems are based on a 2 and 3 EMA’s and nothing else. And to answer your q @profit they have been curve fitted to buggery which is why they will not work probably in the long run. What other indicators do you suggest I look into to build a robust system? I just found EMA’s to be the simpliest and easiest to understand. I would like to use EMA’s in my strategy so what else would compliment the EMA?

     

    06/14/2018 at 10:33 PM #73253
    verygrubby

    @ChrisNYE, it takes balls to open up like you’ve done, so good on you. I’m sure the ProRealCode community will give you all the support they can.

    You probably feel a little punch drunk right now, and maybe you think, “I’ll just keep going… maybe even double up… how much worse can it get?”…Of course you already know – it can get much worse.

    I’ll echo what has already been said – take a step back and do NOT risk any more real money.

    Anyway, what I really wanted to say was this – it’s not all about triggers for entry. Don’t neglect your exit strategy – this is as (if not more) important than you entry strategy.

    The market only does 2 things – it goes up or it goes down – so just flip a coin and your trades will show a profit at some stage around half the time. Don’t kid yourself that there is magical indicator that will solve all your problems. It doesn’t exist. I think the trick is combining a decent trigger with good money management & clever limit strategies – with a big emphasis on the last two. Look back at your live trading – I bet many of those bad trades were in decent profit at some stage.

    It’s a brutal balancing act though, and hindsight is always 20/20.

    Good luck.

     

     

     

    06/14/2018 at 10:44 PM #73254
    Vonasi
    verygrubby wrote:

    it’s not all about triggers for entry. Don’t neglect your exit strategy

    Getting into the market is the easy bit. Look at any chart at any time and you can see a reason to press the button and open a trade. It’s really fallen now is good value I should buy. It’s really fallen so the trend is down I should short. It’s making new highs we are in a really strong up trend I should buy. It’s making a new high so it must reverse so I should short. Just a few examples that all contradict each other but make you open a trade – and you can see them all right now on any chart in any time frame.

    The challenge is to get out without losing any money. Note that I say without losing any money and not winning some money.

    06/30/2018 at 9:12 AM #74896
    Eric

    How do you know if its only a period of draw down or that the strategy dont work anymore and you have to move on?

    and if using daily or weekly tf i suppose it takes longer time

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-17/einhorn-is-having-a-hedge-fund-midlife-crisis-as-losses-mount

     

     

     

    06/30/2018 at 9:37 AM #74900
    Vonasi
    Eric wrote:

    How do you know if its only a period of draw down or that the strategy dont work anymore

    Because you have extensively backtested and seen historically what is the worst that can happen and looked at your exit criteria and checked the probability of how long it could go without closing a position in a run of down bars and then factored in a worse than this scenario. I speak of daily and longer term strategies. With short time frame strategies you know it doesn’t work any more when your account is empty. 🙂

    06/30/2018 at 10:05 AM #74906
    OSCARDAX

    Hi All

    Very interesting comments, I think you certainly have to back test to 3 – 4 years, 6 months is no where near enough. But saying that I have an automated system in operation now for nearly 3 months which certainly is not performing as per my back tests. Typical really and that’s what makes trading so difficult : We do not know what tomorrow holds.

    I was very interested in Vonasi’s comments about trend following major indices (which I do – the DAX to be precise) and the change in market structure. He was saying that his EStop got hit and he decided to wait on the sidelines. I also have noticed this, when I back tested my ES was hit just over once a month this was over a nearly 2 year period. And what happened when I started live trading ? It is getting hit 4 times a month, sometimes 5 ! The market is in a very bad sideways and volatile state at present (the DAX index) …trend following right now is very difficult. But you cannot ‘come out’ of your system and wait on the sidelines, because if you do when that big trend comes along that pays off all your losses, guess what ? you are NOT on it ! Now you have a problem. Psychologically its huge.

    My opinion is that the market is like this because of geo-politics but that cannot affect my system which must be left to ‘run’. I think the market will revert again to its ‘normality’ as regards trends but for now it s what it is. Difficult game, trading.

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