The 4 years USA Presidential Cycle Trading strategy
May 15, 2016, 5:56 PM
Strategies
4 Comments
Hello everyone,
Here is a well-known strategy, and very effective.
We buy a US index in the 3rd year of the presidential cycle, and sell the following year.
Actually, indices (such as Dow Jones, S&P500) raise because periods of presidential campaigns, whose promises make indices to grow.
I had to adapt some dates with the symbols ” >= ” , because there are days when September 30 for example is not a business day.
The strategy is profitable nearly each time.
The test was launched since 1982, but actually by launching the strategy in 1932, it is almost always positive (just 2 short years with low losses ).
// CYCLE PRESIDENTIEL USA
Defparam cumulateorders = false
//TAILLE DES POSITIONS
N = 2 // à adapter selon DJ, S&P500, etc.
// CYCLE PRESIDENTIEL DE 4 ANS
ANNEEDEBUT = 1982
IF year >= (ANNEEDEBUT + CYCL) and month >= 09 and day >= 25 THEN
buy n shares at market
ENDIF
IF year >= (ANNEEDEBUT + CYCL + 1) and month >= 12 and day >= 25 THEN
sell at market
CYCL = CYCL + 4
ENDIF
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Filename:
CYCLE-PRESIDENTIEL-USA.itf
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Hello, I'm Marc.
Nice to meet you.
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