the most important question in this forum

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Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 56 total)
  • #59055

    It’s been said that 95% of Retail Traders lose money so if one took the opposite trade (to the 95%) then you might end up in profit!? 🙂

    I think above is what Leo was saying in #58912  ??

    #59057

    It’s been said that 95% of Retail Traders lose money so if one took the opposite trade (to the 95%) then you might end up in profit!? 🙂 I think above is what Leo was saying in #58912 ??

    So if I asked a hundred people to tell me if they are profitable or not it is likely that 95 of them would be losers and 5 of them would be winners. Now the question is would you make more money by doing the opposite of the 95% or more by doing the same as the 5%?

    I think I’d take the latter – far less trades of a known quality.

    #59062

    This is far from the most important question in this forum in fact it shouldnt even be here  .. There ive said it  … Now back to the code  …

     

    ” If you cant see the Problem you will never find the Solution ”

    ” Gambling is not Trading “

    #59065

    It’s been said that 95% of Retail Traders lose money so if one took the opposite trade (to the 95%) then you might end up in profit!? 🙂 I think above is what Leo was saying in #58912 ??

    A broker who does not pass on clients’ positions to the market takes the opposite trades all the time. That’s why they make money relatively safely.

    Simply turning round a strategy that would have lost in the past is no successful recipe, because you still have the problem of all backtests : that the future will be different. Parameters optimized for maximum loss may well win in the future.

    Brokers have access to the statistical sum of all clients (which you and we have not), and therefore they make money from the sum of the spread, overnight fees, and their clients’ losses, in case they do not hedge clients’ positions outside.

    In addition, for a big broker, the majority of clients’ positions will cancel each other out (longs and shorts on the same instrument), and so they do not have to hedged. When the sum of all clients make losses because they are too stupid or too inexperienced, losses are in any case the broker’s gain, I think.

    #59066

    This is far from the most important question in this forum in fact it shouldnt even be here  .. There ive said it

    Sometimes it never ceases to amaze me how you manage to say what everyone else is thinking but quietly keeping to themselves. Are you from Australia by any chance? 🙂

    #59067

    I have made some amazing profits but consistency is the problem for me. Anybody else consistently making profits over the past year or more on here?

    Consistently‘ is difficult in trading. If you have enough money then consistently losing small amounts for five months in a row is absolutely fine as long as in month six you hit a big win that surpasses the total of the small losses. Have lots of diversified strategies running all doing the same and you might be a bit more consistent and luck into a big win every month – or you might get all the big wins in month six. Trading is not a regular pay check at the end of the month. Markets do not know that you need to feed the kids this month!

    I trade about 10 times per month and my personality is such that I need positive confirmation that my system proves itself within 2 months else I tweak it.  Due to other factors I am unable to let a system run for 6 months at a time and if one month produces 8 or 9 losses I am disposing of that system.

    My systems are fully automated with high speed code and also incorporate level 2 data but to be honest I think slow manual trading based on spotting patterns with the human eye are actually more effective.  Also as mentioned previously indices have tighter spreads than shares so are easier to make a profit on in 1 day.

    #59070

    I trade about 10 times per month and my personality is such that I need positive confirmation that my system proves itself within 2 months else I tweak it. Due to other factors I am unable to let a system run for 6 months at a time and if one month produces 8 or 9 losses I am disposing of that system.

    Back Test, Walk Forward Test and maybe throw in a Monte Carlo Test….. and repeat.. That should give you confidence to now Forward test. Don’t touch it leave it alone. If it looks like it is failing then leave it running and duplicate it and modify that version until you are happy after all the testing again. Then run the two alongside each other. When you are super confident that one of them works put it live with the smallest stake you can and sit back – don’t touch unless it appears to be totally different behaviour to the demo testing. It is all about building confidence in your strategy.

    #59072

    This is far from the most important question in this forum in fact it shouldnt even be here .. There ive said it

    Sometimes it never ceases to amaze me how you manage to say what everyone else is thinking but quietly keeping to themselves. Are you from Australia by any chance? 🙂

    I would saying when entering any business the most important thing to is evaluate the return on investment (both in £ and time).  I think making a profit is the most important thing and so it is important to try and estimate that from other traders.

    Maybe a small percentage of people trade for a motive other than profit but I don’t think they are business people.

    #59074

    Making a profit is important but not the most important thing. Not losing a fortune is the most important thing.

    Trading is like every business at the start up – there is lots of hours and lots of effort and lots of risk and not a lot of return. Once the business is established the first three can be reduced and hopefully through efficiency the returns improved. Some businesses fail because the effort was applied in the wrong place or was insufficient. No number of hours will make up for this.

    As for motive – some people find the possibility of lots of money enough. Others just like the buzz – as anything that you can win or lose at gives a burst of adrenalin. Good traders put this emotion to one side as much as possible and just use the knowledge they have gained through their effort to not worry about the losers and not get too excited about the winners. It is just maths at the end of the day.

    #59075

    I am here to improve my coding skills and maybe while i am at it  , if possible , assist others with any difficulties where my limited coding skill can help  .  All coding/ programming does is assist the trader to make trading ideas binary , the ideas still have to come within  . I would suggest to succeed at this coding gig a solid grounding in price action will go a long way  .  Trading is as hard as any work  , as stated the statistics allude to only 5% making it  .  if you cant daytrade stop doing it , why you cant do it can only be discovered by yourself  . Demanding to know who makes money with the bold shouty text  will not help you one iota .  If you know your expectancy is negative or suboptimal YOU should stop trading  , its that simple  . There are many great books out there to help on this journey  , go read some  ,  but be aware many many trading books fill your head with anecdotal subjective rubbish and i think this is what hurts many traders . Their heads are filled with toxic ideas that have to be unlearnt .  If its not quantifiable it doesnt get a second look from me  . maybe a thread on useful resources is needed  . Remember a positive mindset comes from a positive expectancy  not the inverse …  I really think this thread should be in another forum , Ive seen these discussions many times elsewhere and they generally lead nowhere  , as i stated the answers are inside .

    #59083

    This is far from the most important question in this forum in fact it shouldnt even be here .. There ive said it

    Sometimes it never ceases to amaze me how you manage to say what everyone else is thinking but quietly keeping to themselves. Are you from Australia by any chance? 🙂

    Yes i am  Australian

    Here are a couple resources and not all trading books that i believe will assist the journey   Howard Bandy has a few youtube vids worth watching as well  .   Thinking Fast and Slow is a must read imo

     

    I have literally 500 trading books and i doubt more than 10% of them are worth reading

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #59086

    Guys thank you very much for your posts I am grateful particularly Vonasi who has been professional,  supportive and helpful and I admire his outlook on life.

    I am a business man and was just keen to get a feel for who makes a consistent profit day trading stocks alone (not swing, not position holding, not fx, indices etc)  There is no point spending many hours learning to code or setting up a business which never leads to a profit so I think my question is totally appropriate and fair.

    The stats maybe 95% failure overall for retail traders but I believe that they are much higher just for pure stock day trading as the broker fees and lack of high volatility on liquid shares which can be traded in large volume prevent long term profitability.

    I simply have never heard of a pure retail stock day trader who is profitable in the long term.

    I personally find that indices are much more profitable due to tighter spreads and easier to trade.

    Thanks again

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

     

    1 user thanked author for this post.
    #59093

    Yes i am  Australian

    (Tongue firmly in cheek from a pomme) – throw another prawn on the barbie for me then cobber!

    #59095

    I believe that they are much higher just for pure stock day trading as the broker fees and lack of high volatility on liquid shares which can be traded in large volume prevent long term profitability.

    Trading individual shares via a broker taught me everything I needed to know about losing money. I think in the long run I am about breakeven now after dividends. For some people it is a style of trading that suits them. I had a friend, who is sadly no longer with us, who was amazing at it. He used to pass me the odd suggestion and they always performed astoundingly. Unfortunately they were let down by my own choices in the same portfolio! Everyone thought he didn’t have two beans to rub together but when he passed away it was found that he had millions invested in shares. I guess you just have to find what style of trading suits you.

    Good luck with the journey and thanks for the compliments.

    #59105

    Brisvegas – thank you very much for the book recommendations I will check them out – I apprecaiate it.

Viewing 15 posts - 16 through 30 (of 56 total)

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