My First Year Trading

Snålänningen · 2024-08-21T09:59:26+00:00

Hey everyone, I want to share my trading journey over the past year – not just to tell my story, but also to offer some encouragement and insight for those just starting out. In December 2023, I attended a trading event that sparked my interest in systematic trading. Before this, I had never traded, but I had been a long-term investor in stocks and index funds, so I had a basic understanding of the market. After the event, I dove into YouTube, this forum, X, and the podcast Better System Trader. I started a trial on ProRealTime and experimented with creating strategies on a demo account. When the trial ended, I rented an algo to trade live with real money, allowing me to continue using ProRealTime “for free” while I still was learning. Since the event I have read, listened or tested strategies for a couple of hours per day. I only had access to the complete version of ProRealTime (200k bars) in the beginning, which turned out to be beneficial. I tested numerous strategies from this website – 99% didn’t work at all, but a rare 1% did. I also began creating my own strategies. Although I couldn’t code at all initially, I managed to piece together simple strategies, often using snippets from ProRealCode. By April 2024, I upgraded to ProRealTime Premium and got access to 1 million bars. I could now test my 30-50 strategies on extensive out-of-sample data. I discovered that most of my strategies were curvefitted – they looked great on the most recent 200k bars but performed poorly on earlier data. However, a few strategies held up, looking solid on both the 1 million and 200k bar backtests. This made me wonder if I had stumbled upon some actually good strategies. I launched six of my own algos on my live account. As of today, my account has grown 75% since April 2024, which I still find hard to believe. The journey wasn’t without its drawdowns, but I’m confident in the strategies since they’ve performed well both live and on out-of-sample data. I also believe I haven’t taken any extreme risk, I had some safety margins to be able to handle the drawdowns my algos had. So, what can you learn from my story? Either I’ve been lucky, or it’s actually possible to become a profitable trader in your first year, even without prior experience – if you’re willing to put in the work. The value of out-of-sample data and the dangers of curvefitting can’t be overstated. Finally, I’m still very new to systematic trading, and I’m learning something new every day, especially from the people on this forum. Thank you all for sharing your knowledge!

Viewing 14 posts - 1 through 14 (of 14 total)

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08/21/2024 at 10:59 AM #236564 quote

Snålänningen
Participant

Average

Hey everyone, I want to share my trading journey over the past year – not just to tell my story, but also to offer some encouragement and insight for those just starting out. In December 2023, I attended a trading event that sparked my interest in systematic trading. Before this, I had never traded, but I had been a long-term investor in stocks and index funds, so I had a basic understanding of the market. After the event, I dove into YouTube, this forum, X, and the podcast Better System Trader. I started a trial on ProRealTime and experimented with creating strategies on a demo account. When the trial ended, I rented an algo to trade live with real money, allowing me to continue using ProRealTime “for free” while I still was learning. Since the event I have read, listened or tested strategies for a couple of hours per day. I only had access to the complete version of ProRealTime (200k bars) in the beginning, which turned out to be beneficial. I tested numerous strategies from this website – 99% didn’t work at all, but a rare 1% did. I also began creating my own strategies. Although I couldn’t code at all initially, I managed to piece together simple strategies, often using snippets from ProRealCode. By April 2024, I upgraded to ProRealTime Premium and got access to 1 million bars. I could now test my 30-50 strategies on extensive out-of-sample data. I discovered that most of my strategies were curvefitted – they looked great on the most recent 200k bars but performed poorly on earlier data. However, a few strategies held up, looking solid on both the 1 million and 200k bar backtests. This made me wonder if I had stumbled upon some actually good strategies. I launched six of my own algos on my live account. As of today, my account has grown 75% since April 2024, which I still find hard to believe. The journey wasn’t without its drawdowns, but I’m confident in the strategies since they’ve performed well both live and on out-of-sample data. I also believe I haven’t taken any extreme risk, I had some safety margins to be able to handle the drawdowns my algos had. So, what can you learn from my story? Either I’ve been lucky, or it’s actually possible to become a profitable trader in your first year, even without prior experience – if you’re willing to put in the work. The value of out-of-sample data and the dangers of curvefitting can’t be overstated. Finally, I’m still very new to systematic trading, and I’m learning something new every day, especially from the people on this forum. Thank you all for sharing your knowledge!
JS, danskfilou, phoentzs and 5 others thanked this post

08/21/2024 at 2:26 PM #236574 quote

JS
Participant

Master

Nice story, congratulations…

Of course, it’s a relatively short period of time for your (live) strategies, but it sounds good: 75% …

It is indeed hard work with an uncertain outcome and hard to believe when you actually see your system win…

You sound quite systematic in your approach and that probably explains your relatively short period to success…

Because you mentioned “drawdown” I think you are working with a trend following system…

Would you like to tell us something about your system?

Good luck with your trading…

08/21/2024 at 3:55 PM #236583 quote

Aragorna
Participant

Average

Hi, are you working with IB or IG?

08/22/2024 at 9:06 AM #236599 quote

FPH
Participant

New

Hello, Thank you for your very encouraging feedback. I’m just starting out and my results are much more modest. 10% in 40 days on manual ETFs; I’m looking for an automatic algorithm. Could you tell us what assets you’re buying and over what timeframe? Can you share your results dashboard with us? Can you share your algorithm ITF file with us? Thank you very much and happy trading FPH

08/22/2024 at 9:38 AM #236600 quote

Snålänningen
Participant

Average

Hey! I use IG as broker. Regarding my systems, they are mostly trend-following on the big low spread indices like US100, DAX, SP500, between 1-5 minutes timeframe. I don’t use indicators that much, usually it some kind of price action/candlesticks formation/breakout together with some trend filters, like SMA or LinearRegression, and maybe an additional filter like increasing volume, not too high volatility etc. And then some trailing stop code snippet from here!

08/22/2024 at 10:29 AM #236602 quote

FPH
Participant

New

Hey ! Great! Thanks for your reply! How much did you read in start-up capital? FPH

08/22/2024 at 11:56 AM #236609 quote

Snålänningen
Participant

Average

Sorry I saw your first message just now. I’m attaching result dashboard here, its split up in two images as I switched base currency on my account. First image is in SEK and second image in Euro. If you divide SEK with 10 you get it in Euro’s. Start capital around 5250 EURO. Unfortunlately I dont wanna share my ITFs but I’ll share some backtest prints, they are with 1 contract/ 1 spread. First backtest is for US100 and second for DAX.
PRC.png PRC2.png PRC3.png PRC4.png

08/22/2024 at 7:52 PM #236620 quote

FPH
Participant

New

Hey! That’s really impressive, thanks a lot for sharing… I’d love to hear any advice you can give me…. Happy Trade! FPH

08/26/2024 at 9:13 AM #236715 quote
Snålänningen
Participant

Average
Thanks for your kind words! Well as I said I am still very rookie, but some advice here:
- Play safe, and make sure to have enough money to cover drawdowns on your account. I think “margin + MaxDD * 2” is a generally good starting point as how much capital you need per algo. Then the drawdowns doesnt feel as hard in your stomage, and risk of ruin should be very low. (If your strategy is properly developed)
- Have incubation time (run them on demo) of 3-6 months of the algos you develop. I usually test a rough idea of the algo on 1M to see if the algo is profitable. If it looks promising I jump down to 200k units and develop and optimize the algo there. Then I maybe even do 2-3 versions of the algo with different trailing stops etc, and then try it on 1m. After you tried it on 1m, see the algo as untouchable. Because everything you do after is basically curvefitting
- I don’t use indicators that much, usually it some kind of price action/candlesticks formation/breakout together with some trend filters, like SMA or LinearRegression, and maybe an additional filter like increasing volume, not too high volatility etc.
- Try just do simple systems. For example, Enter after a new high when the long trend is positive, with a trailing ATR stop code could be enough.
- There is a lot of good read here on ProRealCode. Here is one example: https://www.prorealcode.com/topic/thoughts-on-profitable-trading-systems/
- And the good old classic rule – The holy grail in trading isnt one holy mega amazing algo, its a bunch of OK uncorrelated algos!
Good luck and dont forget to have fun!
GraHal thanked this post
08/27/2024 at 2:37 PM #236746 quote

Niklas87
Participant

New

I started about 1.5 years ago too with the same background as you, but been going down the indicator driven road. However i agree that this will soon lead to curvefitting and gett to complicaed with layers on layers off code… I had a bot that was upp over 50% trading on gold, but the past months have been bad and the bot have grown to complex so now its hard to work on.. I see your from Sweden too, may i ask wher in the country? I was for some time working together with a guy and was realy fun to share ideas ect.. Been thinking to setting upp some meeting IRL, would you be intrested?

08/27/2024 at 2:59 PM #236747 quote

Snålänningen
Participant

Average

Yeah it would be superfun to share ideas and have a meetup! I’m based in the capital of Sweden. I dont think we are allowed to share personal mails here, but would be fun to have a chat! May I ask how your total account/portfolio performance in % have been this and previous year? I am still very new to this, and its hard to know what is reasonable to aim for.

08/27/2024 at 4:01 PM #236751 quote

Niklas87
Participant

New

Awsome! The other guy i worked with was from that area too but i live in the south part. My current performence is maybe +25%, mostly due to some to aggresive bots i tryed last fall and doing things i know i shuldent. I think a first stepp to aim for is to beat index, then index x2. I read Minervinis book and other tradiers that avrige over 100%/year. But given that nervs and keeping cool is a huge part off trading and algos make this less off a factor, my long term goal is 100% year. Is ther a PM function? Cant find one..

08/27/2024 at 8:30 PM #236763 quote

Snålänningen
Participant

Average

Thanks for sharing! I mailed PRC to get your contact detail so we can have a chat. 🙂

08/27/2024 at 10:03 PM #236764 quote

Niklas87
Participant

New

Awsome 🙂 Ther shuld be a PM function on the forum too..
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