How to detect a strategy to have potential and be successful

• 08/25/2021 at 7:34 AM #176151
  phanz

  Hi all,

  Just wanna gather your thoughts and opinions on this…  for two strategies: Mean Reversion and Trend following…

  Consideration:

  • Just 1 contract per trade,
  • No money management,
  • No optimisation.

  The question is…  What is the :

  •  % of winning trades,
  •  Gain/Loss ratio
  • Time in the market

  For

  •  mean reversion strategy
  • trend following strategy

  to be considered as having potential and deserved further studies?

  

  phanz

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  08/25/2021 at 10:18 AM #176173
  JS

  I can speak only about trend following.

  Back Test 15 years / 1 contract / no optimization

  1 user thanked author for this post.

  phanz

  

  JS

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  08/25/2021 at 12:37 PM #176200
  JS

  I am not a fan of optimization because optimization means, adapting your system to a certain market.

  It must be the other way around, you have a (fixed) trend following system and when there are trends in the market your system preforms good and when there are no trends in the market your system preform bad.

  

  JS

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  08/25/2021 at 1:02 PM #176201
  JS

  It is a common mistake to look at the PROFIT as the most important part of a system.

  Maybe some people think, you only make a profit of 2000 euro in 15 years (S&P500).

  This profit depends on your MM including the number of contracts used.

  When your Gain/Loss Ratio and % of winning trades is good then you can make all the money in the world…

  Profit is secondary and the characteristics of your system is first.

  

  JS

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  08/25/2021 at 1:32 PM #176206
  phanz

  Yes JS, I totally agree.  That is why I do not include profit as the criteria, but rather:

  •  % of winning trades,
  •  Gain/Loss ratio
  • Time in the market

  as the criteria.  Surely there must be some ballpark numbers to the above 3 criteria for mean reverting and trend following strategies.  Normally mean reverting will have higher % or winning trades and have many small gains vs big few losses thus small Gain/Loss ratio.  The opposite is true for trend following strategies.  But what I want to ascertain is what is that criteria for mean reversion and trend following strategies for someone to say “hey this strategy has potential and deserve more work for improvement”.

  

  phanz

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  08/25/2021 at 3:11 PM #176216
  JS

  The combination of Gain/Loss ratio and %Winning trades.

  

  JS

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