Anybody else almost scared to go Long?

• 04/30/2025 at 3:03 PM #246579
  THE TRADER

  The two Relavant Supports in S&P.

  You see..

  

  THE TRADER

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  05/01/2025 at 9:37 AM #246604
  LucasBest

  REDs Days coming…

  

  LucasBest

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  05/01/2025 at 9:41 AM #246605
  JS

  Phew, how terribly annoying this is…

  

  JS

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  05/01/2025 at 3:11 PM #246640
  LucasBest

  JS wrote:

  Phew, how terribly annoying this is…

  What is annoying ?
  Red Days ? Or Red Days prediction ? Or the ability to predict reversal ?

  

  LucasBest

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  05/01/2025 at 9:03 PM #246670
  LucasBest

  Cristal Ball prediction… It was right again 🙂
  8h time frame and daily.

  

  LucasBest

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  05/02/2025 at 8:19 AM #246680
  justisan

  LucasBest wrote:

  JS wrote:

  Phew, how terribly annoying this is…

  What is annoying ?

  Red Days ? Or Red Days prediction ? Or the ability to predict reversal ?

  it would be possibly less annoying (or not annoying anymore) if prophets would show how much of real money they are losing/making with their prophecies over relevant period of time (let’s say last 12 months). otherwise what’s the purpose of regularly publishing them? I can imagine two purposes:

  • one advertises/sells his bots (seems not to be your case, at least not yet)
  • one is kind of obsessed by “being right” (and by showing it)

  yet “being right” (in terms of having high hit-rate) with market predictions usually is contrary to making money in the business of trading markets. whether one is really right/wrong is shown not by the frequency of  winning/losing trades, but by growth/annihilation speed of your account, which is obviously the result of how much chips you lose with losing trades and how much you obtain with winning ones. one can be winning with 70-80-90 out of 100 trades and go bankrupt still. on other hand one can lose with 70-80-90 out of 100 trades  – and flourish.

  1 user thanked author for this post.

  JS

  

  justisan

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  05/04/2025 at 1:47 PM #246762
  Andre Vorster

  I don’t think Trump does it on purpose. He had talks with the trading houses. If there were any serious concern over Trump and the market one would have heard comments from the trading houses and traders.
  I think they all agreed the market needs to cool down for the right reasons for the long term benefit. Rather market movement which is “controlled” in way than a sudden bad market crash.  Yet the brokers/banks try not to let it go to low to create panic worldwide.

   

  

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  05/04/2025 at 5:30 PM #246768
  LucasBest

  justisan wrote:

  one advertises/sells his bots (seems not to be your case, at least not yet)
  one is kind of obsessed by “being right” (and by showing it)

  yet “being right” (in terms of having high hit-rate) with market predictions usually is contrary to making money in the business of trading markets. whether one is really right/wrong is shown not by the frequency of winning/losing trades, but by growth/annihilation speed of your account, which is obviously the result of how much chips you lose with losing trades and how much you obtain with winning ones. one can be winning with 70-80-90 out of 100 trades and go bankrupt still. on other hand one can lose with 70-80-90 out of 100 trades – and flourish.

  I will never sell any strategies/bots because i agree with you :
  – either they do really earn huge amount of money, and then why should i sell them ?
  – either they make little amount of money or not regularly, but still are winners (not enough for living), and then i can understand renting them as it can help having more money or at least more regular money. But as i have a good job, i don’t need to rent any bot for living.
  – either they don’t work or don’t work anymore and then it is a scam, and i don’t want to scam anyone.

  So am i obsessed of being right ? I would say no, as i know the Market is always right and i don’t have enough money to make it move in my desired way (if i had any). And i also know that winning rate is not the Graal, and that high win rate does not mean much money at the end (it is mean reversion strategies Vs trend folling ones).

  I will maybe show the results of my strategy in the future ; all i can say now is that the goal is 100% increase of the capital per week!

  Why i post predictions ? I’m just testing my Cristal Ball indicator in higher time frame.

  I know you don’t believe at all in indicators (maybe you have not the good ones or you don’t know how to read them ? Even if i somehow agree with you, most of the indicators are only garbage)
  What would you think of this one above which print those signals (arrows) in real time (no back paint or repaint). Buy/sell signals and also take profit ones that can be filtered to keep only the “good” ones, as same technique used to spot reversal can be used to spot choppy markets…
  It works the same in any time frame and any asset. Here it is US500 15min time frame

  

  LucasBest

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  05/05/2025 at 11:02 AM #246808
  justisan

  LucasBest wrote:

  I will maybe show the results of my strategy in the future

  yep, please do so. I mean don’t show here your backtest (or “trading” on demo-account), but real trading results after relevant period of time, at very least 6 months, ideally 12.

  LucasBest wrote:

  all i can say now is that the goal is 100% increase of the capital per week!

  this attitude makes you more than perfect client for retail trading industry, so investment banks and brokers, because that is exactly what they want/need: folks with unrealistic expectations with maximum of their capital trading at maximum frequency. I hope you understand – or soon will figure out, that trading which doubles capital in one week very probably wipes out the account in the other week. but nobody, not me and probably not the others will be able to convince you about that in advance. everybody needs to figure out on them own what is “realistic expectations”, everybody needs “to go through the fire” and “grueling pain” (I am quoting here JS and coincatcha from other posts).

  LucasBest wrote:

  Why i post predictions ? I’m just testing my Cristal Ball indicator in higher time frame.

  sorry, for me this is not logical explanation about why you post your predictions here in the forum.

  LucasBest wrote:

  I know you don’t believe at all in indicators (maybe you have not the good ones or you don’t know how to read them ? Even if i somehow agree with you, most of the indicators are only garbage) What would you think of this one above

  it’s outraging that I don’t have good indicators and feel really a bit stupid not being able to read those which I have (had). being such a dumbass I developed (after many exchausting years of investigations) systems which are same dumbass like myself, using just price and time as variables/inputs. I can imagin that some “indicators”/inputs which are derived/calculated not from price series might be of value, like sentiment or traded volume, but so far I did not add them to any of my systems, major aim being to keep trading logic as painfully simple as possible.

  I can’t really tell anything about “your” indicator, which prints those arrows on chart you attached. looks like it’s buying/closing shorts when prices are dropping and selling short/closing longs when prices are rising. well – that is the opposite of what I think would make up a competetive approach.

  cheers

  justisan

  

  justisan

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  05/06/2025 at 5:31 AM #246825
  THE TRADER

  Go for it, Justisan. You’ve got the whole forum dying to see your algorithms. Mine can be seen and tested.

  I’ve been awake for days wondering if you’ve posted your results and screenshots of your algorithms, but no, nothing so far.
  I’m even taking anxiolytics.

  

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  05/06/2025 at 5:37 AM #246826
  THE TRADER

  <span class="Y2IQFc" lang="en">I reactivated some algorithms this weekend. Blood & Fire is semi-automatic, with 4-hour and daily builds; it will never be in the Marketplace. Buy multi-positions, and deactivate and reactivate them almost every weekend. The rest can be found in the Marketplace. Best regards.</span>

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  <span class="Y2IQFc" lang="en">I reactivated some algorithms this weekend.   Blood & Fire is semi-automatic, with 4-hour and daily builds; it will never be in the Marketplace. Buy multi-positions, and deactivate and reactivate them almost every weekend.   The rest can be found in the Marketplace.   Best regards.</span>

  

  THE TRADER

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  05/06/2025 at 5:46 AM #246827
  THE TRADER

  Short-term Relevant Supports Nasdaq.

  

  THE TRADER

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  05/06/2025 at 7:56 AM #246829
  justisan

  THE TRADER wrote:

  This is the last time I’m writing.

  …this prophecy which had huge chances for comming true got broken after only six days… and still continues to break apart. yet nobody can stop serious prohets from foretelling – and salesmen from selling 😀

  

  justisan

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  05/06/2025 at 8:37 AM #246831
  THE TRADER

  I can’t help it, your comments are so funny.

  

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  05/09/2025 at 7:21 AM #246913
  LucasBest

  Today will tell the truth. It can be a really huge selling day (be careful with BTFD).
  If my analysis is rigth then the close of the weekly candle will return at its lowest and even lower…

  

  LucasBest

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