When you build an algo that works on any Indice correlated or not . Curve fitting is an economical virus , will make your finances sick .
small talk
Pretty well . Although to do have some solid ideas i might lay down
Adhere to a philosophy of quantitative integrity, whereby an idea must not only be supported by empirical data, but must also be grounded in sound theory
This might lead somewhere and it might not
solid ideas i might lay down
We look forward to reading your ideas!
This is my approach to avoid curvefitting, pls let me know what u think.
How i create strategies and optimize
What is a ‘trully’ as it is not a word I can find in any dictionary?
Is it ‘truly’ but said with an Australian accent? 🙂
and it wont
It won’t or it trully wont?
Every strategy we create is curve fitted due to the fact that we only have history to base our theories on – so we fit our ideas to that history. If we have created a strategy that works on various indices in back testing then that fact tells us absolutely nothing about whether it is curve fitted or not. Forward testing in the real world with real spreads and real world market moving events is the only way to establish how curve fitted a strategy is. The longer the test the better but at some point we have to decide it is or isn’t working. The very next day the market could decide to prove the opposite but it is called spread ‘betting’ for a reason so we have to accept that risk as part of the game.
Hey NIcholas do you really think this is how a moderator should operate and if so delete my account please , i cant be part of this place if your moderator here is a troll , thank you .
LeoParticipant
Veteran
Hey Brisvegas, calm down. We just read his opinion. The opinion of Vonasi is: everything is curve fitting.
I still thinking about the topic. My approach is to change to artificial intelligent that look back and learn continuously but of course that is super-curve fitting. Curve fitting that evolve in real time though.
When you build an algo that works on any Indice correlated or not . Curve fitting is an economical virus , will make your finances sick .
You started a topic with the above two random sentences and when someone bothers to reply with an opinion or a thought to try to get the discussion going for you you then call it trolling.
It seems that you have failed to spot the smiley face after my ‘trully’ question.
I will highlight your request regarding your account to Nicolas.
My approach is to change to artificial intelligent that look back and learn continuously but of course that is super-curve fitting. Curve fitting that evolve in real time though.
It certainly is curve fitting – not sure about the super though. A strategy that adapts is still adapting based on history. It is trying to fit itself to history. It does not know how important recent history is compared to much older history. It could put the emphasis of importance on very recent history and then suddenly there is a market crash similar to one twenty years ago. Suddenly really old history is more relevant than the recent history – but if we let the strategy give equal importance to all history then it is just doing what we do when we write a basic strategy and back test it on all the data we have. So just deciding on the importance of the age of history that we use for our adaptive strategy to use for its decision making is curve fitting. Not so super – but definitely curve fitted as is every strategy. As I have always said – our job is to curve fit as lightly as possible – but we will always curve fit.
LeoParticipant
Veteran
Machine learning will take more relevance in recent data because new data is feeding the algorithm constantly.
Which I like, by the way, because I think the way of trading has changed so much compare to several years ago.
